Physical Metal Availability

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Physical Metal Availability

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Sat Apr 20, 2013 8:15 am » Google Chrome 25.0.136 Google Chrome 25.0.136  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

If the bankers want to crash the system, then let us try to measure when it will happen. There are rumours of shortages in many countries in the world, the Hong Kong Exchange is close to running out of supply, manipulation scandals are slowly reaching the public eye and a major public buying campaign is scheduled for the 1st of May. Finally, silver is now at or below the price of production and gold is not far above. Current prices will see mines closing down if prices stay here much longer.

In my town today, physical gold is currently available at about 4.1% over the spot price, there is no evidence at the moment of shortage of supply
Physical silver is available at 15.7% over spot price (including 7% VAT), with one dealer asking for a 12 to 15 day delivery, evidence of lack of supply.

What about your town?
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby wee Jinky » Sat Apr 20, 2013 9:31 am » Firefox 20.0 Firefox 20.0  Windows XP Windows XP  Screen Resolution: 1024 x 768 1024 x 768

I'm not seeing queues on the street but I am seeing availability lessening at the dealers I use,
at one point all gold had been sold out . No junk silver in the NL for almost 1 month now.
In the age of t'internet and online ordering people may not see the rush to buy before its too late.
My dealer told me 2 weeks ago he'd never been so busy . I don't see the dealers refusing to sell at low prices
as there's still some on sale ,what I do see is its selling quicker than ever before
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Apr 20, 2013 9:45 am » Safari 6.0.3 Safari 6.0.3  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Listening to Ralph Acampora this morning in the first part of FSN (@ around 18:00), gold is now starting on a multi year correction so surely there is going to be loads of supply. :lol:

Technicians don't ever seem to look at fundamentals or what actually is going on in the real world. The way I see it there is only buying of physical metal in this paper smash, I haven't heard of anyone talking about selling metal.

Sorry I don't ever visit local shops, do all my buying via the net these days.
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Apr 20, 2013 9:52 am » Safari 6.0.3 Safari 6.0.3  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Looking at this list of bullion for sale at a a major US dealer, Tulving, there seems to just be loads of sold out notices except on the newest of gold coins.

http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Sun Apr 21, 2013 10:41 am » Google Chrome 25.0.136 Google Chrome 25.0.136  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Pixel8r wrote:Technicians don't ever seem to look at fundamentals or what actually is going on in the real world.


Yes, this is very true, technicals often "overpower" fundamentals which leads to markets getting to completely wrong prices (as in putting the spot price of silver below the cost of production) and then causing all sorts of problems when they do eventually snap back to what the true fundamental values are. Technicals represent short term thinking and fundamentals long term thinking, and of course most people are short term thinkers.

Anyway, interesting to look at dealers in the US, and that that coin shop is buying at 44 dollars over spot. And a minimum order of 20 one ounce gold coins! From comments on other sites, physical seems to be in a lot shorter supply in the US than it is in Europe.

Wee Jinky: I think I have seen you mention it before, old Dutch silver coins can (if there were any on sale) be bought free of any sales tax?
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Pixel8r » Sun Apr 21, 2013 10:57 am » Safari 6.0.3 Safari 6.0.3  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Stun Lee and Win wrote:
Pixel8r wrote:Technicians don't ever seem to look at fundamentals or what actually is going on in the real world.


Yes, this is very true, technicals often "overpower" fundamentals which leads to markets getting to completely wrong prices (as in putting the spot price of silver below the cost of production) and then causing all sorts of problems when they do eventually snap back to what the true fundamental values are. Technicals represent short term thinking and fundamentals long term thinking, and of course most people are short term thinkers.

Anyway, interesting to look at dealers in the US, and that that coin shop is buying at 44 dollars over spot. And a minimum order of 20 one ounce gold coins! From comments on other sites, physical seems to be in a lot shorter supply in the US than it is in Europe.

Wee Jinky: I think I have seen you mention it before, old Dutch silver coins can (if there were any on sale) be bought free of any sales tax?

That is the thing that technician Ralph Acampora was saying that gold is now starting on a multiyear bear market, so was not talking about the short term. As far as I can see nothing has changed at all in the reasons for gold being in its bull market, the fundamental reasons have just got stronger.
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby wee Jinky » Mon Apr 22, 2013 11:17 am » Firefox 20.0 Firefox 20.0  Windows XP Windows XP  Screen Resolution: 1024 x 768 1024 x 768

@STW - yes
2 companies sell them amsterdamgold and tov-hazel ,both are sold out
I can't tell you what the situation is re sending them to the UK tho
I do know someone on here travelled over and bought them over the counter
and took them home
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Mon Apr 22, 2013 1:16 pm » Google Chrome 25.0.136 Google Chrome 25.0.136  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Thanks Wee Jinky. :thumbup:

No shortages here as yet. The lady in my local dealer seemed almost offended when I asked about the possibility of stocks running out :lol:
Gold is currently available at about 3.8% over spot.
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Mon Jun 24, 2013 5:01 pm » Google Chrome 26.0.141 Google Chrome 26.0.141  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

No signs of shortages yet but premiums are now creeping up somewhat. Gold is now attracting about a 5.5% premium in my normal haunts, up from the 4% or so of the Great April Smashdown. I wonder if the dealers will refuse to sell at under €1000 an ounce no matter what the spot price goes to.
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:45 pm » Safari 6.0.5 Safari 6.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Stun Lee and Win » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:01 pm wrote:No signs of shortages yet but premiums are now creeping up somewhat. Gold is now attracting about a 5.5% premium in my normal haunts, up from the 4% or so of the Great April Smashdown. I wonder if the dealers will refuse to sell at under €1000 an ounce no matter what the spot price goes to.

I expect dealers will sell at whatever price until they have zero stock, because they are hedged and just make the spread (which doesn't change much). As their stock starts to deplete they will just up their premiums to make the same money from selling less stock.

The problem will come when their suppliers (mints, refiners) can no longer provide them with stock, which will happen as miners will stop selling (this will take a bit of time as many will be on contracts).

I expect if this keeps on we will see more and more mines closing to preserve their resources as circumstances allow.
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:15 pm » Google Chrome 26.0.141 Google Chrome 26.0.141  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Price has now gone well below the €1000 mark.
I wonder if we have now reached complete capitulation. Even at these ultra low prices, premiums have appeared to return to their normal levels and there is little to no evidence of shortages. Everyone who was going to give up has by now given up, a situation that was not reached following the falls in April. I hope none of us are going to capitulate now.
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby fexx » Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:25 pm » Safari 5.1.9 Safari 5.1.9  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1600 x 900 1600 x 900

Stun Lee and Win » Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:15 pm wrote:Price has now gone well below the €1000 mark.
I wonder if we have now reached complete capitulation. Even at these ultra low prices, premiums have appeared to return to their normal levels and there is little to no evidence of shortages. Everyone who was going to give up has by now given up, a situation that was not reached following the falls in April. I hope none of us are going to capitulate now.


A quote from the comments in a ZH article;

"here is the question, who would step in and buy gold here, and by gold I mean GLD. the real gold bulls are buying phyz and everyone else is dumping paper.

who would buy paper?

I don't see anything other than a continued implosion until either the paper market breaks and phyz reigns supreme, or we all find out we were delusional. "
Disclaimer - I am not backed by anything.
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Laura » Fri Jun 28, 2013 2:12 pm » Google Chrome 26.2.2.0 Google Chrome 26.2.2.0  Windows Seven Windows Seven  Screen Resolution: 1366 x 768 1366 x 768

Stun Lee and Win » Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:15 pm wrote:I hope none of us are going to capitulate now.


Yes, sort of, our 'Aging PM Fans Annual Crazed Orgy of Spending Fund' has been pulled & reallocated to a PM account with a finger poised over the 'Buy' button.
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:04 am » Google Chrome 37.0.206 Google Chrome 37.0.206  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Bumpity.

Even at these prices, I am still seeing no shortages at all. Premiums have widened somewhat for gold to around 3.5% and they are evidently not keen on selling their silver down here as evidenced by premiums of up to 20 percent on the smaller silver coins. Nevertheless, there still appears to be large amount of stock at these low low prices.
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Laura » Sun Oct 05, 2014 9:10 am » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Android Android  Screen Resolution: 960 x 544 960 x 544

As the plan is to cut the earth's human population by 90% then lack of supply is only a short term issue.
Even that can be overcome by nicking it from destabilised countries, Ukraine being the latest of course.
Out of the various (3D) scenarios that I can see, none look too promising.
Tedious it is :yawn:
I wish I had joined more of the dots a few years ago. Dammit!
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:07 am » Google Chrome 37.0.206 Google Chrome 37.0.206  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

I really bopolnied suggesting that there would be physical shortages if the price was to fall below the cost of production for any length of time. Still loads of gold available here at a somewhat increased premium of around 3.7%. The silver market does seem to be slightly tighter and there are no 1 ounce Philarmonikers or Britannias available for example. Premiums have increased to around 22 percent as well. Nevertheless, the only conclusion it is sensible to make is that there are no major supply problems even here, with silver at 16 dollars and gold at 1175 dollars at the time of writing.
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Re: Physical Metal Availability

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Nov 07, 2014 11:18 am » Firefox 33.0 Firefox 33.0  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 2560 x 1440 2560 x 1440

and a week later as the price drops further the shortages become the worst since 2001!

Physical Gold Shortage Worst In Over A Decade: GOFO Most Negative Since 2001

The last time there was an systemic physical gold shortage was in July 2013. It is then that, for the first time in 5 years, the 1-month Gold forward offered rate, or GOFO, went negative. We said:
Today, something happened that has not happened since the Lehman collapse: the 1 Month Gold Forward Offered (GOFO) rate turned negative, from 0.015% to -0.065%, for the first time in nearly 5 years, or technically since just after the Lehman bankruptcy precipitated AIG bailout in November 2011. And if one looks at the 3 Month GOFO, which also turned shockingly negative overnight from 0.05% to -0.03%, one has to go back all the way to the 1999 Washington Agreement on gold, to find the last time that particular GOFO rate was negative.

Fast forward to today, when as noted over the past week there has been a massive shortage of precious metals - most notably silver which as of this moment is indefinitely unavailable at the US Mint - as a result of the tumble in the paper price, and following 8 days of sliding and negative 1 month GOFO rates, today the physical metal shortage surged, as can be seen by not only the first negative 6 month GOFO rate since last summer's much publicized gold shortage when China was gobbling up every piece of shiny yellow rock available for sale, but a 1 month GOFO of -0.1850%: the most negative it has been since 2001!

Said otherwise, the physical shortage is the worst it has been in over a decade, even as the price of paper gold continues to drop!..
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