Predictions for 2014

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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Wed Feb 05, 2014 11:25 am » Safari 6.1.1 Safari 6.1.1  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

warpig » Wed Feb 05, 2014 10:13 am wrote:The market will correct because of the tapering and the woes in the emerging markets, but when the FED stop tapering and actually increase QE around April-May, the markets will make new highs later in the year. The fat lady will sing in 18 months IMO.

There is double the amount of leverage in the market currently to how things where in 2007, all the bulls seem to be talking about how this is just a correction. We are at/just below support currently, if we breakdown from here it looks like things could get nasty in a hurry IMO.

We need to ask ourselves when the stock market bulls start to realise that bidding stocks up just off the back of cheap money and not increased revenue isn't going to work.

Cheap money has meant that corporations have been able to borrow cheaply and buy back stock, increasing their EPS without increasing revenue (which is broadly flat since 2008). That basically just increases the leverage in the system, now is not a time for increasing leverage it is a time for battening down the hatches.
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby warpig » Wed Feb 05, 2014 12:35 pm » Google Chrome 31.0.165 Google Chrome 31.0.165  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

They know it's wrong, but they also know they have to produce results, they're just betting they won't be the last one out of the exit. They'll keep playing the same game until they can't. Common sense does not factor in to their equations.

Pixel8r » 05 Feb 2014 11:25 wrote:We need to ask ourselves when the stock market bulls start to realise that bidding stocks up just off the back of cheap money and not increased revenue isn't going to work.

Cheap money has meant that corporations have been able to borrow cheaply and buy back stock, increasing their EPS without increasing revenue (which is broadly flat since 2008). That basically just increases the leverage in the system, now is not a time for increasing leverage it is a time for battening down the hatches.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:36 pm » Google Chrome 38.0.212 Google Chrome 38.0.212  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Seems a good enough time as any to bumpity this thread.

Aside from my predictions for the pound, which can be found in more detail on the "UK BoomBust" thread where I picked the top almost to the day, my predictions were pretty awful, particularly that for the yen. 5/10
I note that I was yet again too bullish for the metals and not bullish enough for UK housing.

When is next year's starting?
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:55 pm » Safari 8.0.1 Safari 8.0.1  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 2560 x 1440 2560 x 1440

I was well and truly wrong about this year :(

I'll start the 2015 predictions thread over the weekend.
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(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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