What would you tell your 2007 self?

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What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby warpig » Thu May 22, 2014 4:31 pm » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Just curious what others think, but I was wondering what wisdom I would impart on myself back in 2007.

1) Market fundamentals don't trump the business cycle.
2) Don't offer others investment advice.
3) Don't go 100% in to any market and have at least a 9 year investment outlook.
4) Don't underestimate anyone with everything to lose.

I'm sure there's a million other bits of advice, but they're the ones that spring to mind. Anyone else?
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby Pixel8r » Thu May 22, 2014 4:40 pm » Safari 7.0.3 Safari 7.0.3  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

If I could travel back and tell myself I told say buy gold here, swap it to silver here, swap it back here, ad infinitum. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but completely useless.

I like to think that when I talk to someone about financial matters that I am just giving my opinion rather than advice, financial advice is something you pay for and need to be qualified to give. Although paying for it does not guarantee success they are covered in the terms and have a way to recommend certain products based upon the clients risk profile.

If ever I talk about financial things these days I always add it "this is just my opinion" and "do your own research".
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby warpig » Thu May 22, 2014 4:49 pm » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Haven't you learnt anything that would have helped you back in 2007?
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby Pixel8r » Thu May 22, 2014 6:13 pm » Safari 7.0.3 Safari 7.0.3  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

warpig » Thu May 22, 2014 5:49 pm wrote:Haven't you learnt anything that would have helped you back in 2007?

Sorry only had time for a very quick reply earlier, been a busy day working and have just landed another website :D

Nope not really other than price history. Things have gone completely how I expected, I don't doubt any of the decisions I have made. Sure you could wish you were a trader and knew when to get into and out of whatever with hindsight but like I was saying that is just useless and does your head in. Unless you are Goldman Sacs actually getting told the future trading is a zero sum game and you will lose as much as you win, probably actually lose more these days down to HFT.

I don't doubt the decision to move out of fiat and into the oldest form of physical currency, even though it has been on a 2+ year correction. I will continue to save in gold/silver and see them having an extremely bright future. I see what is going on currently as a completely manufactured "recovery" engineered by governments taking on more even debt, issuing false figures and PR to try create the impression of a recovery, in the hope that it will become self sustaining.

At the moment all us PM holders look like dunces in the eyes of the public, but some come we will be back being geniuses again IMO. The trouble is that everyone takes a to short-term look on things these days, you are only as good as your last trade in most peoples eyes. Rather than look to guess the unknowable short-term gyrations I like to work out the mega cycles and ride them and feel happy that I have seen this one a long time before many. The western financial system is now in a much worse situation than it was before the crash in 2007. Imagine what is going to happen as reality comes back into focus and the debt created rush starts to wear off, the comedown is going to be unbearable for many.

Are you getting a hard time from those you talked to currently?
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby azazel » Thu May 22, 2014 7:49 pm » Firefox 28.0 Firefox 28.0  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1366 x 768 1366 x 768

Good topic Warpig. I agree with Pix, other than buy sooner and trade in and out to accumulate more, I wouldnt have changed a thing. I'm happy where I live and would not have bought any of the houses that have come and gone over the last seven years. Ive had "thanks a bunch for that advice you gave me..." sort of comments from one guy I know. Looking back, a correction on the lines of 1974-1978 was obvious, other than the peril the banking system is in. So I'm happy where I am (other than the Bullion Vault fees) and dont mind waiting until 2020 before we buy a house and move on.
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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby headmelter » Thu May 22, 2014 11:39 pm » Firefox 29.0 Firefox 29.0  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1366 x 768 1366 x 768

I would tell myself to max my mortgage and buy G & S.
Truth be told that's sort of what I did in 2012. In Ireland we've had our HPC,I felt we had hit the bottom or very close to it so we moved house, remortgaged, fixed the rate for 5 years and buried some fiat in PMs.

Late 2017 is our hopeful target and we'll continue to add to our PMs until then. If our target is missed we just hope IRs remain low and we can stay solvent long enough without being forced to sell PMs until their price rises enough to clear the mortgage.

Sometimes you have to speculate in an attempt to accumulate.
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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby warpig » Fri May 23, 2014 12:22 am » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

No, but I think I've come to the conclusion I can't save the world and other people's financial business is their own. I had talked to my father about buying some precious metals and given the market dropped out of it's arse a while later, I'm glad he decided not to, that would have been very uncomfortable.

Pixel8r » 22 May 2014 19:13 wrote:Are you getting a hard time from those you talked to currently?
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby warpig » Fri May 23, 2014 12:25 am » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Good stuff! 2020 seems so far away still. Whilst I agree that's probably the bottom of this crisis, houses may have bottomed before then. Lets hope so anyway...

azazel » 22 May 2014 20:49 wrote:dont mind waiting until 2020 before we buy a house and move on.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby warpig » Fri May 23, 2014 12:28 am » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

I'd tell myself to buy loads of mining shares and trade them like they're going out of fashion!

headmelter » 23 May 2014 00:39 wrote:I would tell myself to max my mortgage and buy G & S..
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby headmelter » Fri May 23, 2014 8:37 am » Firefox 29.0 Firefox 29.0  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1366 x 768 1366 x 768

@ WARPIG

I'm a phizz only boy. All markets are rigged...I like to hold what I own and make decisions in my own time not forced by pretend markets.
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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby warpig » Fri May 23, 2014 8:51 am » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Me too mostly, but for a bit of casino fun with the biggest potential gains, I don't think you can beat mining shares.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Fri May 23, 2014 10:44 am » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Very good question.

1. Don't ignore the wishes of TPTSB.
2. Stay in Japan
3. Women who are both attractive and sane are vanishingly rare. Don't let them go.
4. Go for shiny in late 2008.
5. Stop drinking so much, get a bicycle and do more exercise.
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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby warpig » Fri May 23, 2014 10:47 am » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

:clap:
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Sat May 24, 2014 7:51 am » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

:thumbup:

And another one that I forgot.
6. Dr Bubb's a bit mental.

Your original 4 suggestions are all excellent, but, in relation to no. 2, I think it is perfectly sensible to at least mention an alternative point of view. If anyone asks me, I will always mention that Britain is borrowing 100 billion or more a year (which has more impact if you say something like more than 10 million pounds an hour) and that it is cheaper to get shiny in shops than it is out of the ground. It only takes 5 or 6 seconds. But trying to convince people is utterly pointless.
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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby warpig » Sat May 24, 2014 7:04 pm » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

I completely agree! :shh: :D

Stun Lee and Win » 24 May 2014 08:51 wrote:6. Dr Bubb's a bit mental.

But trying to convince people is utterly pointless.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby Pixel8r » Sat May 24, 2014 8:35 pm » Safari 7.0.3 Safari 7.0.3  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

warpig » Sat May 24, 2014 8:04 pm wrote:I completely agree! :shh: :D

:lol:
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Sun May 25, 2014 9:06 am » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Funnily enough, Bubb now agrees that the metal markets are manipulated. :)

After reading it on Clif High's Future Bot website or whatever it's called. :doh:
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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby Pixel8r » Sun May 25, 2014 11:11 am » Safari Mobile 7.0 Safari Mobile 7.0  iPad iPad  Screen Resolution: 768 x 1024 768 x 1024

Stun Lee and Win » Sun May 25, 2014 10:06 am wrote:Funnily enough, Bubb now agrees that the metal markets are manipulated. :)

After reading it on Clif High's Future Bot website or whatever it's called. :doh:

Not the front page of the FT then. :lol:
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby fwiw » Fri May 30, 2014 7:07 am » Safari Mobile 7.0 Safari Mobile 7.0  iPhone iPhone  Screen Resolution: 320 x 568 320 x 568

I would say this to my 2007 self - even though you are right, you will also be wrong - live life to the fullest and enjoy what you do have and not stress about what you don't.

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Re: What would you tell your 2007 self?

Postby warpig » Fri May 30, 2014 8:43 am » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Hello fwif!

Yep I was certainly wrong on timing, we all thought the financial world was going to end Nov 2011, how wrong were we. :o :D

Good to see you around!
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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