Page 1 of 1

Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:05 pm
by Pixel8r
Ok time for another poll, I feel quiet positive that we have ground out a base and are about to set off on the final phase of this bull.

Re: Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 12:21 am
by headmelter
If it's the final phase I think it'll be a slow lift off, before sparking into lifein 2015. I had originally targeted 4th quarter 2015 to 1st 1/4 2016 for the fun and games to start but then thought 2016/17... I think next year could be the year....but a slow burn into it.

Re: Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:26 pm
by warpig
I voted for $1451-$1650, but it may be ever so slightly higher than $1,650. No new highs this year IMO, they will come next year, although we do have MA's war cycle about to kick in during November. IIRC, he monitors lots of war cycles and they are all timed to converge this year, so November could be significant for global unrest and with that I expect gold to do well, it always has.

Image

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/1 ... calate-nov

Re: Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:47 pm
by d2thdr
Gold wont cross 2000$. The price signals will move too randomly to make any sense of it. Of course the gold dealers will give us a price but that price wont be based on anything except their intuition. I think gold price will drop even more. I would say as low as 700$. Cant predict what it will be this december though. It will shake off even more weaker hands before the final collapse of the US economy. But I see the price falling rather than rising until the discredited paper market collapses. The price will remain uncertain for sometime with an extended bank holiday. I vote for sub $1050.

Re: Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:17 pm
by wee Jinky
I would love $700 gold but in order to get it down that low they would need loads of physical to swamp the market
unless there is another Gordon Brown waiting in the wings I cant see it happening.
I just dont believe the physical exists even if they wanted to.
A lot will depend on the political situation which isnt great at the moment.
I believe the brics are geared up and ready to make their move and the US empire
is overstretched financially and militarily .
I also think the $ could take a hammering from now on in so I have given the
uberbull vote of $2000+.
I hope you are right and I am wrong

Re: Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:34 pm
by warpig
If we get another 2008 downdraft the dollar should strengthen as investors flee to cash. I don't see a collapse in the USD for some time yet. Interestingly MA believes the dollar will be the last currency to collapse, given so many countries are administering the same monetary policy as the US, maybe he's right.

I still don't see the paper market collapsing or becoming less relevant, even if they have zero physical. People will still trade gold options even if the warehouses have zero stock, I'm sure you can imagine how it will be sold to the investment populous. "< 1% take delivery, so why does it matter..."

Re: Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:28 pm
by d2thdr
Wee Jinky and Warpig,

My number of sub 1000 is hope. But I do see it likely because we have many deflationist still crowing about this. Coming TO Martin Armstrong, I do concur with his thesis of USD being the strongest currency. It is what we humans are programmed to compare our currency to. And as US will try to keep the dollar value intact, the general non availability of dollar will force people to consider USD as a holding currency. I am certain a lot of USD will want to find a new home. At least people here will do that, keeping some for necessities. The options like gold, houses etc. will be traded for whatever the amount of USD is available.

Armstrong however does not define what happens after this. HIS Crystal ball reaches where USD becomes very strong with/without gold at its tail.

Paper market have credibility as there is some physical flow. Traders still have to live by eating food. And even if they carry on, there will be some who will demand delivery. Them not getting delivery will perhaps stop them from getting into it again? Normal human conditioning is expectation of a return on the investment.

I doubt if gold drops to 700 there will be any physical left to buy from the dealers.

The recent WGC membership drop out perhaps points to the possibility of the expected drop in gold price. At current values taking inflation into account, many gold mines are just about breaking even. I think they know the price is falling and as a part of WGC they are expected to contribute to ability of poor peasants to be able to buy gold at discount. Interesting times.

Re: Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:07 pm
by Pixel8r
Ok pin myself to the mast time.

I see October probably being the time we start seeing a large increase in gold, probably breaking the downtrend convincingly in September. The reason for this will be that interest rates start to gently rise and it causes the stock & bond market to start pulling back. The central bankers seem stuck at the moment, they need to raise rates but also they don't want to endanger the recovery... I think the need to raise rates will win and they will start testing the water with small increases, but in doing so they will discover that there is no recovery only the money they have created. Without zero rates and printing to infinity housing, stock & bonds values start to crash because they have just been floated by QE cash.

The other thing to consider is the massive bank reserves which have been created by the feds printing, where is that money going to go as rates start to rise and bonds/stocks start to fall?

There is no way we will ever see $1000 gold in our lifetimes again IMO, I hope we do as I have a large amount of capital on the way but don't think I'll be that lucky. Currencies have been devalued too much already for that to happen, it is just that the devaluation has not yet shown in the price of PM's due to their control schemes. They will fail as they run out of physical metal to supply East.

Re: Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:13 pm
by Pixel8r
warpig » Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:34 pm wrote:I still don't see the paper market collapsing or becoming less relevant, even if they have zero physical. People will still trade gold options even if the warehouses have zero stock, I'm sure you can imagine how it will be sold to the investment populous. "< 1% take delivery, so why does it matter..."

I do as people start to wonder if they will get paid out for their investments. A paper contract from a bankrupt bank is only worth something while the bank pretends to be solvent, once the derivative snowball starts rolling again things will unwind quickly.

Re: Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:27 pm
by warpig
Well once the derivative beast rolls over, the fat lady has sung and the merits of physical gold will be available for all to see.

Pixel8r » 23 Jul 2014 16:13 wrote:I do as people start to wonder if they will get paid out for their investments. A paper contract from a bankrupt bank is only worth something while the bank pretends to be solvent, once the derivative snowball starts rolling again things will unwind quickly.

Re: Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:46 pm
by warpig
Martin Armstrong states quite clearly, once governments struggle to meet their financial obligations they'll start seizing financial assets from the electorate. He's quite scathing of world governments, he advocates lower taxes to encourage growth, he defines higher taxation as both deflationary and draconian. George Osborne's new proposals for tax collection, where they can put their hand directly in to your bank account for tax debt, will likely encourage people to go "off grid" as MA puts it, hopefully this should cause a positive spin on the price of gold, as people clamber for "off grid" assets before this process accelerates.

IMO Gold still needs that deflationary scare to get things moving again in earnest.

Image

Watch on youtube.com


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 41762.html

Re: Poll: Where will Gold be at Christmas?

PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:46 pm
by Pixel8r

Somehow I don't think the tax man that comes knocking on Mr BTL's door is going to look like that. :lol: