Rinse and repeat

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Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:07 am » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

It feels to me that we are about to go back into the cycle which started in October 2007 again. with everything breaking down heavily. The alarm bells are starting to be rung again and we are seeing the early stages of contagion appearing again. Once the derivative snowball starts rolling again there will be no stopping it.

In 2008 we saw a massive crash in the stock market which caused a rush to liquidity, with everything of any value being sold off, we also saw bond prices decrease and yields go up. The system which was on the edge of complete lockup in 2008 was saved in the final hour by massive money printing and buying of banks toxic assets at book value. Stock and bond prices then started back up and were further increased by the continual loose money policy.

In the rush to liquidity in 2008 we saw gold and silver crash heavily also, gold went from around $1050 to bottom at around $650 and silver from $21.30 to $8.50.

What I am unsure about is wether the same thing is going to happen this time? If we see a resumption of the 2008 liquidity crisis, it could cause the babies to be thrown out with the bath water again. But things are materially different now than they were in 2008, in that gold and silver have been in an artificially created bear market for the last 3 years. Physical supply has been used to drive down the spot price to benefit the massive paper PM derivative positions.

It could be as this crash happens and people wake to the fact that there is no avoiding the crisis that started in 2007, we could see the massive money that is the stock and bond markets trying to find it's way into the tiny PM's markets for protection. If that happened in any way we would see the price spike heavily upwards as the gold bull showed it's horns again.

Therefore I am confused as to wether to increase my position further currently or hold off in cash and see what the next few months bring. Being in cash does have it's benefits but also it's draw backs as we enter the crisis again. It may well be that you can not buy things when you most want to as money can not be accessed or moved around. :?
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Laura » Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:46 am » Google Chrome 35.0.190 Google Chrome 35.0.190  Windows Seven Windows Seven  Screen Resolution: 1280 x 800 1280 x 800

Pixel8r » Sun Aug 03, 2014 10:07 am wrote:. It may well be that you can not buy things when you most want to as money can not be accessed or moved around. :?


If your PMs need to come out via the fiat conversion system then the problem remains, does it not Pix?
Plus your wealth could vanish midway in the (well-organised) 'chaos'.
So it's cash/PMs* 'under the mattress'; or Schaublin's vault (if he is speaking to you); or?...that familiar final question :think:

* For UK viewers: Cash Only as PMs will not be understood for a while :roll:

Talking of iffy bankers, did you see this:

After the Revolution 4 family members were jailed and the Bank was nationalized in 1975. They all went abroad (exile, after getting released from prison due to their Buddies).
One of them went to London and opened up a new Bank branch with only 20.000 US$ in his pocket and help from his Banking buddies (again) - mostly French and British Banks. Even Rockefeller.
Another family member opened up a branch in Brazil with ZERO down payment, not even paying the 2 million US$ fee for a Banking licence. Just with buddy-buddy help he got himself a Bank.
The rest is history. They all came back, filthy rich and bought their Family bank back (for pennies on the Dollar, through their new Buddies sitting in Government).


It was on Zh. A translation from a Portuguese book on the Espirito-Santo family, post '74 revolution.

In ancient Chinese culture whole families were executed for the crimes of one member. Even that wont eradicate dodgy bankers
Sai Baba, when asked the question "What is the purpose of physical life?" responded: "To learn not to do it again."
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Acton Boy » Sun Aug 03, 2014 10:03 am » Safari Mobile 7.0 Safari Mobile 7.0  iPad iPad  Screen Resolution: 768 x 1024 768 x 1024

Maybe when the SHTF again money will run into the 'safe' government bond market to hide. Would this cause interest rates to fall and push bond prices up again ?
I'm tempted by UBT for a small position percentage wise. It's up nicely so far this year.
A big change this time around is the announced bank bail ins, this will cause panic in the harts of anyone who has a few quid in cash in the bank.
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Sun Aug 03, 2014 10:14 am » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

Acton Boy » Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:03 am wrote:Maybe when the SHTF again money will run into the 'safe' government bond market to hide. Would this cause interest rates to fall and push bond prices up again ?
I'm tempted by UBT for a small position percentage wise. It's up nicely so far this year.
A big change this time around is the announced bank bail ins, this will cause panic in the harts of anyone who has a few quid in cash in the bank.

From memory initially in the late 2007/early 2008 crisis bond prices were actually falling/yields rising heavily, they turned around when they started being monetised. So be careful.
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby AQUAMAN » Sun Aug 03, 2014 4:55 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:06 pm » Safari Mobile 7.0 Safari Mobile 7.0  iPad iPad  Screen Resolution: 768 x 1024 768 x 1024

AQUAMAN » Sun Aug 03, 2014 5:55 pm wrote:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-03/portugals-insolvent-banco-espirito-santo-be-bailed-out-resolution-fund-become-100-sh

So Portugal's "less insolvent" smaller banks will fund the bailout facility to rescue the nation's most insolvent mega bank. What can possibly go wrong...
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby AQUAMAN » Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:36 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1600 x 900 1600 x 900

I dont get it

So is it a bail in or bail out or what

Is there really any difference
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Sun Aug 03, 2014 8:13 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

AQUAMAN » Sun Aug 03, 2014 8:36 pm wrote:I dont get it

So is it a bail in or bail out or what

Is there really any difference

Probably end up being both. The difference is one the EU (Germany) does it the other is the creditors have it done to them...
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:16 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Human behavior hasn't changed and as PM's are one of the few asset classes that are up in 2014, I think it's quite likely we'll see a self off, I haven't seen anything to suggest this won't happen. In my view, a market crisis won't cause gold to rise, but the quantitative easing that will follow another significant market crash, will send gold significantly higher IMO.

In tune with my "What would you tell your 2007 self" thread, I would suggest we've all been guilty of jumping on the `it's going to blow up tomorrow` bandwagon and I would say, you will have time to react when it starts it's meteoric climb. There's no need to be early IMO.

Pixel8r » 03 Aug 2014 10:07 wrote:What I am unsure about is wether the same thing is going to happen this time?
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Laura » Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:41 pm » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Android Android  Screen Resolution: 960 x 544 960 x 544

AQUAMAN » Sun Aug 03, 2014 8:36 pm wrote:I dont get it

So is it a bail in or bail out or what

Is there really any difference


It is not unknown for a Portuguese bank to open a trading account for an existing current account customer, without the customer being aware of it.
(Fill in what has not been said as creatively as you wish)
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Sun Aug 03, 2014 10:04 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

warpig » Sun Aug 03, 2014 10:16 pm wrote:In tune with my "What would you tell your 2007 self" thread, I would suggest we've all been guilty of jumping on the `it's going to blow up tomorrow` bandwagon and I would say, you will have time to react when it starts it's meteoric climb. There's no need to be early IMO.

The big question is how much higher would you expect the gold price to be before you jumped and said okay now it's definitely going higher? $1400... $1500...

In the long run we all expect the price to be a lot higher than $1300, so maybe it goes down to below $1000 and maybe it doesn't. If it doesn't you miss the chance to buy in at nigh on the lowest price it has been for the last 3 years. If it does I would expect it to recover very fast. I am still leaning towards Bo Polny's forecast the summer low and really don't think we will ever see $1000 or below again, too much money has been created and it is too far below production cost.

All the fundamentals point to gold being the currency to keep your cash in and now is a good as time as any after having been on a engineered correction for the last 3 years. I keep telling myself "don't try to be clever", the gold price does it's own thing and goes up when everyone least expects it. Gold always does it's accounting, after the amount the money supply has been expanded I have no worries buying at these levels.

What would you tell your 2007 self? Sell everything and go all in to silver at the $8.50 in 2008, then sell out $49.50 3 years later and go live on a beach somewhere (hindsight is a great thing but completely useless). :D
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Mon Aug 04, 2014 4:07 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

I'm not talking about hindsight, I'm talking about learning from your mistakes, so they're not repeated. The fundamentals have supported a much higher gold price, yet it hasn't materialised over the last 3 years. Physical gold is a tiny part of the market, in isolation physical gold isn't a market mover, the price is overwhelmed by too much paper gold.

I don't believe gold does it's own thing, I think we just don't understand it well enough, despite all that we've learnt. Sometimes it behaves as the monetary asset of last resort and sometimes it behaves as a commodity. The CCI peaked the same time gold did, in fact the same as all the other commodities if memory serves me well and whilst the CCI has broken out I don't believe it's retested the break out point. I can't check this at the moment as my charting software subscription has expired. Personally I would wait for the confirmation of the breakout.

Image

I agree that we all think gold and silver will be multiples higher in the not too distant future, HOWEVER... something I have learned from the 2011 decline is having money tied up in a depreciating asset is demoralising and it makes your investments illiquid. Personally it's a situation I will try to avoid moving forward.
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"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Aug 04, 2014 4:31 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

Thanks for your input, the thing is I see gold and silver as money not an investment. As investment I see the stocks I buy, which I will wait for the right moment to buy. Sometimes I feel that holding lots of cash carries it's own risks, the currency can lose purchasing power and banks can go bust. I know you are guaranteed £85k in the UK, but really don't fancy waiting for them to pay out while I watch them start up QE again. The other thing I am monitoring is GBP/USD, the pound has been on a surge of late and I think we are about to see a stock crash which will bring strength in the dollar/weakness in pound.

To me Gold:GBP is looking like a good time to be converting pounds to gold.

Image

Here's an update on the CCI index chart, looks to be getting very close to the test of the breakout you mentioned. :D

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Mon Aug 04, 2014 5:06 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

As a minimum I would wait for a convincing bounce off 504 on the CCI, it isn't far away.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Aug 04, 2014 5:51 pm » Safari Mobile 7.0 Safari Mobile 7.0  iPad iPad  Screen Resolution: 768 x 1024 768 x 1024

warpig » Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:06 pm wrote:As a minimum I would wait for a convincing bounce off 504 on the CCI, it isn't far away.

Agreed. I wanted to buy some immediately as I had to sell a fair bit on the way to here and it's cheaper now. Managed to get GM to drop my minimum for the discount down £5k batches, so will make it easier.
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:04 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

I did write a really long reply, but thought what's the point, he's going to do what he wants anyway... :lol:
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:01 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

warpig » Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:04 pm wrote:I did write a really long reply, but thought what's the point, he's going to do what he wants anyway... :lol:

You know it :D :lol:
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:37 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

The thing that is holding me back from pulling the trigger currently is the COT position, commercials are very short.

Free COT charts here - http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:41 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

When they are considerably net long, you know it's time to buy.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:43 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

warpig » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:41 pm wrote:When they are considerably net long, you know it's time to buy.

Does that ever happen? I thought the commercials were always net short, but to just at different levels.
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