Rinse and repeat

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:00 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

I don't specifically remember, but surely they must have been net long with the run up to Autumn 2011.

Pixel8r » 04 Aug 2014 22:43 wrote:Does that ever happen? I thought the commercials were always net short, but to just at different levels.
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Aug 05, 2014 7:18 am » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

warpig » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:00 pm wrote:I don't specifically remember, but surely they must have been net long with the run up to Autumn 2011.

Nope the commercials are always net short but to different degrees, It makes sense when you think about it as they are just laying off the risk of their commercial holdings.

Looking at the chart below it shows they are actually the most net short in times of rising markets, their net short position seems to reduce as the price falls. So it seems that the current position is actually bullish for prices.

Image
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Aug 05, 2014 9:06 am » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

warpig » Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:06 pm wrote:As a minimum I would wait for a convincing bounce off 504 on the CCI, it isn't far away.

Not sure that a retest has to be exactly to the breakout line or where the line actually precisely is, but it appears we may have reached the bottom on the CCI pullback yesterday.

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Tue Aug 05, 2014 10:04 am » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

I don't think I've ever looked at a long term COT chart before. There looks to be a fair bit of `gambling` in that chart as well. Look at the 2008 time frame, the shorts and longs were significantly mismatched, it looks to me like they were capitalising on a falling market and it looks like they might be about to do the same thing with the latest spike.

Pixel8r » 05 Aug 2014 08:18 wrote:It makes sense when you think about it as they are just laying off the risk of their commercial holdings.
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"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Tue Aug 05, 2014 10:09 am » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

I don't think it's there yet, we need the MACD to rise above the signal line and I would say the CCI chart I posted above looks fairly definite around 504.

Pixel8r » 05 Aug 2014 10:06 wrote:Not sure that a retest has to be exactly to the breakout line or where the line actually precisely is, but it appears we may have reached the bottom on the CCI pullback yesterday.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Aug 05, 2014 12:45 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

If we get a dip at the London fix today I will buy another chunk (I have 6 chunks left)... Stage my buys over the next month on good dips.
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Tue Aug 05, 2014 12:59 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

What's the urgency?
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Aug 05, 2014 1:08 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

warpig » Tue Aug 05, 2014 11:09 am wrote:I don't think it's there yet, we need the MACD to rise above the signal line and I would say the CCI chart I posted above looks fairly definite around 504.

Pixel8r » 05 Aug 2014 10:06 wrote:Not sure that a retest has to be exactly to the breakout line or where the line actually precisely is, but it appears we may have reached the bottom on the CCI pullback yesterday.

Digging into things a bit more I have noted that the CRB index actually gets listed as $CRB and $CCI, don't really understand the difference between them but they both show different prices.

$CCI - http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CCI&p ... 2624210501

$CRB - http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB&p ... =275425232

The downtrend line on this page shows that the line is at around 303 at the current price is at 294.

CRB Index Breaks above 200-day Day SMA

Image

So it appears we are already below the breakout line, so confirmation should follow with a break above the downtrend on decent volume.
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Aug 05, 2014 1:11 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

warpig » Tue Aug 05, 2014 1:59 pm wrote:What's the urgency?

No urgency just will feel better hold gold rather than cash. My discount rate (which basically gives me a 1% discount) lasts until the 15th September, so I would prefer to get fully invested by then if possible.
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:09 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

The question is will we get it and will you wait until it does or doesn't happen... I won't hold my breath! :lol:

Pixel8r » 05 Aug 2014 14:08 wrote:So it appears we are already below the breakout line, so confirmation should follow with a break above the downtrend on decent volume.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:11 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

That's 5 weeks away and a lifetime in the gold market! :whistle:

Pixel8r » 05 Aug 2014 14:11 wrote:No urgency just will feel better hold gold rather than cash. My discount rate (which basically gives me a 1% discount) lasts until the 15th September, so I would prefer to get fully invested by then if possible.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:58 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

warpig » Tue Aug 05, 2014 3:09 pm wrote:The question is will we get it and will you wait until it does or doesn't happen... I won't hold my breath! :lol:

I haven't bought anymore yet, think I will wait and see what the CRB does this week.
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby warpig » Tue Aug 05, 2014 3:22 pm » Google Chrome 36.0.198 Google Chrome 36.0.198  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Sounds like a plan. :thumbup:
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:59 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:25 am » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

I found this article by Dan Norcini about the difference between the CCI (Continuous Commodity Index) & Reuters CRB Index.

CRB Index versus the Continuous Commodity Index

Most of those who have followed my writings over the years are aware of the fact that I make frequent references to the CCI or Continuous Commodity Index when detailing the performance of the overall commodity sector.

The reason for this is simple - I prefer the well balanced weighting of the various basket of commodities that comprises the CCI to give a better view of the commodity sector in general when attempting to gauge its performance.

The CRB on the other hand is heavily weighted in the energy component. There is nothing wrong with this as this is the deliberate choice of the those who designed this particular index. They felt that because energy costs had such a significant impact on so many areas of the economy, that any view of the commodity sector's performance should include an index that put a greater emphasis on the role of energy when constructing that index...


It appears the CCI is the better one to use as it contains more commodities, whereas the CRB is more energy weighted.

Here's the latest CCI which is showing a double bottom and a breakout from oversold on the RSI and what looks like a confirmation on the MACD.

Image

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CCI&p ... 5088291085
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:30 am » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

I wonder what way the Russia/US sanctions situation is going to play out and what it is going to mean for commodity prices?
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Laura » Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:44 pm » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Android Android  Screen Resolution: 960 x 544 960 x 544

There is only way to go (I'm told), from now on.

Watch on youtube.com

Move at your (non) peril.
Fffffff!
Too plastered to fix the non embed.
Be far worse shortly and don't want to miss the moment.

I blame he ignoramous that called my tablet an ipod -

You really ought to ban me Pix.
I would
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Laura » Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:23 am » Google Chrome 34.0.184 Google Chrome 34.0.184  Android Android  Screen Resolution: 960 x 544 960 x 544

Oops. It all made sense at the time guys :oops: A devil may care reaction to the delay in where this is all going; including the constant slow-death output from Fukushima?
Or maybe the video was meant to go on the Whisky Galore thread to counter WJ's latest reaction to living in Belgium?
Tip: Never drink Portuguese cider. Sorry.
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:06 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

Laura » Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:23 pm wrote:Oops. It all made sense at the time guys :oops: A devil may care reaction to the delay in where this is all going; including the constant slow-death output from Fukushima?
Or maybe the video was meant to go on the Whisky Galore thread to counter WJ's latest reaction to living in Belgium?
Tip: Never drink Portuguese cider. Sorry.

I enjoy your drunken posts, please keep them up. :thumbup:
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Re: Rinse and repeat

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Aug 11, 2014 5:47 pm » Safari 7.0.5 Safari 7.0.5  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 2560 x 1440 2560 x 1440

Bought a load more of gold and silver today. I have come to the conclusion that waiting to act could be the greatest financial mistake of my life, so I am almost all in now.

Let the games begin. :D
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