Historically wrong pundits

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Historically wrong pundits

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:27 pm » Safari 8.0.2 Safari 8.0.2  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 2560 x 1440 2560 x 1440

Thought I'd start a thread to highlight how wrong some gurus have been. Use this thread to post any old commentary that has been proved very wrong.

Found this very interesting listening to again. Robert Prechter has been proven to be completely wrong in his analysis, James Turk has yet to be IMO.

Watch on youtube.com


My take on what is going on currently is the deflation is being combatted by central bank printing. No debt is being allowed to go into default, so there actually is no deflation. As no debt has been allowed to default prices of assets have not deflated, so the system is not being reset and the previous monetary largess still hangs over the system. Derivatives are the key to why the central banks have taken this route, the amount of money in the derivative system is many times global GDP and why nothing can be allowed to go into default, as it would cause a cascading collapse of the banking system wiping out the entire system. There cannot be any deflation as it completely breaks the system that has been created, so the only option is endless fiat creation and monetisation of the debt.

All the talk currently is of recovery and the western CB's being able to raise interest rates soon. The recovery is completely fake and rates are not going to rise, we will be back into endless fiat creation before long which will be followed by international trade being conducted in gold & other commodities.

Look forward to posting here Martin Armstrong saying that the DOW will be at 32,000 by October 2015 (in Oct '13) later this year. ;)
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:37 pm » Google Chrome 38.0.212 Google Chrome 38.0.212  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Pixel8r » Thu Jan 08, 2015 8:27 pm wrote:. Use this thread to post any old commentary that has been proved very wrong.


Bo Polny already has his own thread.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby warpig » Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:48 pm » Google Chrome 39.0.217 Google Chrome 39.0.217  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

:lol: He's getting worse as well, quoting every man and his dog to support "his" [cough, cough] macro cycle view of the world!

Stun Lee and Win » 08 Jan 2015 19:37 wrote:Bo Polny already has his own thread.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:39 pm » Safari 8.0.2 Safari 8.0.2  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 2560 x 1440 2560 x 1440

Stun Lee and Win » Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:37 pm wrote:
Pixel8r » Thu Jan 08, 2015 8:27 pm wrote:. Use this thread to post any old commentary that has been proved very wrong.


Bo Polny already has his own thread.

Yeah Bo has got things wrong with his call for gold to hit $2000 by Christmas, it remains to be seen if he remains to be well and truly wrong. Bo has been saying that the cycle has been extended and that it will complete by June '15 at the latest, also saying there is a few more swings before it sets of to it. He has also been saying that the stock market is now entering a bear market, both of these things remain to be seen. I don't hold Bo's cycle work that highly, but he is entertaining.

What I want to use this thread for is to post commentators which have been proved to be completely wrong in their analysis, rather than just one wrong or two wrong calls.

Robert Prechter has been well and truly wrong for many years and in book form in his "conquer the crash". He was warning everyone off gold just before it broke through $1000, saying they needed to be in dollars. He also has been calling for a stock market crash, completely missing the big picture of QE supporting asset prices.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby warpig » Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:29 pm » Google Chrome 39.0.217 Google Chrome 39.0.217  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Ultimately I think Pretcher's right, the end story is deflation, the problem with him is he didn't anticipate all the stuff in between, but to be fair most didn't. James Turk has been wrong loads of times as well, in fact you could put everyone on this thread, they're all wrong at times.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Fri Jan 09, 2015 12:32 am » Google Chrome 38.0.212 Google Chrome 38.0.212  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Pixel8r » Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:39 pm wrote: He was warning everyone off gold just before it broke through $1000, saying they needed to be in dollars.


Well that doesn't seem to have been such spectacularly bad advice, five years holding dollars at 2.5 or 3 percent or so interest would take us to about the 1150 price that gold made a couple of months ago.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Jan 09, 2015 12:43 am » Safari 8.0.2 Safari 8.0.2  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 2560 x 1440 2560 x 1440

warpig » Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:29 pm wrote:Ultimately I think Pretcher's right, the end story is deflation, the problem with him is he didn't anticipate all the stuff in between, but to be fair most didn't. James Turk has been wrong loads of times as well, in fact you could put everyone on this thread, they're all wrong at times.

I don't think the end story is deflation, as I have explained in different threads. They cannot allow deflation as the derivative setup would completely break the whole system, plus they can always fight deflation by printing fiat currency which is what they will do. The end game is currency devaluing to worthlessness, or hyperinflation.

Just think about the amount of derivatives out there, it is over one quadrillion. How can there ever be deflation, with all the debt defaults when the banking system is wrapped in a quadrillion of derivative positions to offset risk. Risk only gets offset if there isn't defaults which they learnt with the original Lehman's meltdown when they quickly decided the only way to stop the system spinning out of control was to bail them all out. Those "assets" are now on central bank balance sheets, it can't happen.

I am not talking about individual calls I am talking about prognosis, JT has it spot on IMO and Prechter is wrong. There hasn't been and won't be any deflation, the only time it has been present was for less than one quarter in 2008 which doesn't count.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Jan 09, 2015 12:45 am » Safari 8.0.2 Safari 8.0.2  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 2560 x 1440 2560 x 1440

Stun Lee and Win » Fri Jan 09, 2015 12:32 am wrote:
Pixel8r » Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:39 pm wrote: He was warning everyone off gold just before it broke through $1000, saying they needed to be in dollars.


Well that doesn't seem to have been such spectacularly bad advice, five years holding dollars at 2.5 or 3 percent or so interest would take us to about the 1150 price that gold made a couple of months ago.

Yes but the price has gone all the way up to $1920 in the meantime and most have swapped or taken profits on the way. Personally I have done far better than holding cash by swapping between gold and silver.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby warpig » Fri Jan 09, 2015 1:02 am » Google Chrome 39.0.217 Google Chrome 39.0.217  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

As I've said on different threads I don't think they can stop it, it's not about allowing it, it's about containing it and eventually they won't be able to. No they can't fight deflation by printing currency, it has to have a net positive effect or they simply won't do it, at some point that time will come. Printing money to create wealth suffers from diminishing marginal returns. This won't end in hyperinflation, I'm certain of that.

The figure you're quoting is a gross value, not the net value. It won't be a zero sum game, but neither will it be a quadrillion dollar game either.

I've lost count of how many times JT has been wrong, in fact he's been far more wrong than right. There is a strong sense of logic to his theory, but if you haven't got market timing behind you and if you don't see what happens before the final curtain, then you're very much on the wrong side of most calls. I like him, but he's usually wrong.

Pixel8r » 09 Jan 2015 00:43 wrote:I don't think the end story is deflation, as I have explained in different threads. They cannot allow deflation as the derivative setup would completely break the whole system, plus they can always fight deflation by printing fiat currency which is what they will do. The end game is currency devaluing to worthlessness, or hyperinflation.

Just think about the amount of derivatives out there, it is over one quadrillion. How can there ever be deflation, with all the debt defaults when the banking system is wrapped in a quadrillion of derivative positions to offset risk. Risk only gets offset if there isn't defaults which they learnt with the original Lehman's meltdown when they quickly decided the only way to stop the system spinning out of control was to bail them all out. Those "assets" are now on central bank balance sheets, it can't happen.

I am not talking about individual calls I am talking about prognosis, JT has it spot on IMO and Prechter is wrong. There hasn't been and won't be any deflation, the only time it has been present was for less than one quarter in 2008 which doesn't count.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby triple-agent » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:09 am » Mozilla Mozilla  Nokia Nokia  Screen Resolution: 480 x 800 480 x 800

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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:31 am » Safari 8.0.2 Safari 8.0.2  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 2560 x 1440 2560 x 1440

warpig » Fri Jan 09, 2015 1:02 am wrote:As I've said on different threads I don't think they can stop it, it's not about allowing it, it's about containing it and eventually they won't be able to. No they can't fight deflation by printing currency, it has to have a net positive effect or they simply won't do it, at some point that time will come. Printing money to create wealth suffers from diminishing marginal returns. This won't end in hyperinflation, I'm certain of that.

The figure you're quoting is a gross value, not the net value. It won't be a zero sum game, but neither will it be a quadrillion dollar game either.

I've lost count of how many times JT has been wrong, in fact he's been far more wrong than right. There is a strong sense of logic to his theory, but if you haven't got market timing behind you and if you don't see what happens before the final curtain, then you're very much on the wrong side of most calls. I like him, but he's usually wrong.

They can stop defaults by printing money and bailing out failing banks and pension funds by creating fiat that is worth less. This has two results for them, it stops the derivative snowball from gathering speed and also devalues fiat and in turn their debt.

The thing with derivatives is they net out against each other until a bank goes into default then gross becomes very real. You are talking about the system going into deflation and defaults being aloud to happen, which means the entire banking system and most governments go belly up from their derivative exposure.

Back to MA and his great calls, have you put all your dollars on DOW to double before October yet?

If JT has been wrong so much can you show me something he has said in the past that has been proven well wrong? This thread is about presenting old interviews which show pundits being wrong about events rather than rhetoric.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:32 am » Safari 8.0.2 Safari 8.0.2  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 2560 x 1440 2560 x 1440


Agreed he was calling for the hyperinflation end game to start in 2014. Lets see if we can find an old interview of him saying so.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:49 am » Google Chrome 38.0.212 Google Chrome 38.0.212  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Pixel8r » Fri Jan 09, 2015 1:45 am wrote:Yes but the price has gone all the way up to $1920 in the meantime and most have swapped or taken profits on the way.


I remember a spectacular argument between you and Dr Bubb with him suggesting that that was exactly the right thing to do.



I present Andrew Maguire. He has been saying for a couple of years now that the paper markets were just about to break. Then on the 13th of December he said that the paper and physical markets have fully broken apart. Absolute gibberish all of it (Disclaimer: yes this may happen at some point in the next five to ten years).

http://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-12-13-14/
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby warpig » Sat Jan 10, 2015 12:16 am » Google Chrome 39.0.217 Google Chrome 39.0.217  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

You're saying they'll print otherwise the system will implode and I'm saying they can print as much as they want but they still won't be able to stop it imploding. With the amount of money you think they'll just print, you're describing hyperinflation without calling it by it's name, it won't happen because it's futile. The system will implode, it's a house of cards and the end is rather obvious. Bankruptcies, liquidation, asset right [downs|offs], etc... etc... Every additional unit of currency that's created diminishes the value of the last one created, classic supply and demand. It's a snake eating it's own tail and it clearly can't go on forever. A depression and all the things that come with it is an inevitability.

This thread has nothing to do with MA, he's the only one who's been right, you just don't like what he has to say. It's called shooting the messenger.

JT like everyone else who sells gold has been chanting gold will go up for the last 3 years, it didn't. Ipso facto.

Pixel8r » 09 Jan 2015 08:31 wrote:They can stop defaults by printing money and bailing out failing banks and pension funds by creating fiat that is worth less. This has two results for them, it stops the derivative snowball from gathering speed and also devalues fiat and in turn their debt.

The thing with derivatives is they net out against each other until a bank goes into default then gross becomes very real. You are talking about the system going into deflation and defaults being aloud to happen, which means the entire banking system and most governments go belly up from their derivative exposure.

Back to MA and his great calls, have you put all your dollars on DOW to double before October yet?

If JT has been wrong so much can you show me something he has said in the past that has been proven well wrong? This thread is about presenting old interviews which show pundits being wrong about events rather than rhetoric.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:00 am » Safari 8.0.2 Safari 8.0.2  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 2560 x 1440 2560 x 1440

warpig » Sat Jan 10, 2015 12:16 am wrote:You're saying they'll print otherwise the system will implode and I'm saying they can print as much as they want but they still won't be able to stop it imploding. With the amount of money you think they'll just print, you're describing hyperinflation without calling it by it's name, it won't happen because it's futile. The system will implode, it's a house of cards and the end is rather obvious. Bankruptcies, liquidation, asset right [downs|offs], etc... etc... Every additional unit of currency that's created diminishes the value of the last one created, classic supply and demand. It's a snake eating it's own tail and it clearly can't go on forever. A depression and all the things that come with it is an inevitability.

This thread has nothing to do with MA, he's the only one who's been right, you just don't like what he has to say. It's called shooting the messenger.

JT like everyone else who sells gold has been chanting gold will go up for the last 3 years, it didn't. Ipso facto.

They could have gone down the route of allowing defaults and deflation in 2008 but they didn't as they knew that the entire system would collapse due to the quadrillion of derivatives. They made the choice they did in 2008, to bail out the banks and quantitatively ease, they cannot now go back and unmake that choice as the situation is even worse now and the problems larger.

It is just as futile letting the entire banking system & governments collapse. Each unit created diminishes the value of the previous ones, but that is exactly why they will do it, as it also diminishes the value of the debt. Allowing deflation to take hold would just mean debt which can't be paid became exponential more difficult. So you are not just talking bankruptcies and liquidations, you are talking that every government and bank breaks down along with the entire money system.

Understanding that all the banks are bankrupt if they are made to mark their derivatives to market is the key and also understanding that gross value starts to come into effect very quickly if defaults are allowed to happen. Derivatives have guaranteed that deflation can never happen, the only option is to keep monetising the debt and financially repressing the population.

I have not made this thread about MA, but you are. All I have said is that I will be adding his call for the dow to hit 32,000 to it in October.
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby warpig » Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:45 am » Google Chrome 39.0.217 Google Chrome 39.0.217  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

You mentioned MA twice before (your posts 1 & 11) I replied and I'm the one who's making this thread about MA? No it's you.

They've already said they won't bailout the banks again, which is why depositors are now unsecured creditors. They wouldn't have done that if just printing money was as easy a solution as you make it sound. You're talking about hyperinflation, it isn't going to happen. The Western governments won't collapse, but the economies will.

You seem to be implicitly saying:

a) IR's will stay low for hundreds of years.
b) We will have a cycle of bank failures which will be bailed out by the government for hundreds of years. One will preempt the other in a vicious cycle where each peak is magnitudes bigger than the previous peak.
c) Life will carry on as it is now, but their will be volatility for hundreds of years.

Have I got that right? Does that sound feasible to you?
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Re: Historically wrong pundits

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:22 pm » Safari 8.0.2 Safari 8.0.2  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 2560 x 1440 2560 x 1440

I won't mention him again in this thread until October :D

They have been saying whatever they feel will help their situation at that point it doesn't mean it is true though, It is known as MOPE the Management Of Perspective Economics or basically lying to you and me. They have been saying that rates will rise soon for many years now, but they never do. They know that as soon as they raise rates that the recovery will be shown to be fake.

I don't think that rates will stay low for hundreds of years, that is just daft. You seem to forget what has actually happened with the bailouts from 2008, the western governments and central banks have taken loads of the toxic banking assets onto their own balance sheets, there has been no defaults. They have put everything on the line there is now no choice they cannot allow deflation or defaults, derivatives have seen to that. There is now only one option which is to carry on with zero rates and monetisation of the debt.

This will carry on till it doesn't, each time the US prints a load and devalues the reserve currency they export inflation around the world. At some point the rest of the world will stop holding dollars as reserves as they just lose purchasing power by doing so. There are moves a foot currently which is why the US has been targeting the ring leader Russia, the other BRICS nations are not going to just sit around and let this happen as they are all starting to deeply feel the cost of doing so. Look at the hyperinflation that is going on in various places around the world now, that is being caused by the US printing. None will trust each others fiat currencies as they all are devaluing them, so another medium will be found for trade. They will move over to using gold and commodities for settlement of international trade IMO.

I think this will be resolved over the next 6-8 years and we will end up with fiat currencies only being used locally. This will cause the currency wars to stop and also stop the bullying behaviour of the west and bring about a lot fairer system. As soon as the dollar stops being used for international trade interest rates being offered for local fiat will have to rise or no one would keep them using them.

I do not think that printing money is an easy solution but it is their only option, there is no easy solution they are stuck between the rock and the hard place. What do you think would happen if they didn't carry on printing? In this interconnected financial world all banks are dependant on each other performing their contracts, if a big one goes bust the shockwave would ripple through the system, ending up taking down the everything, banks, central banks, governments...

Personally I will continue to save any spare cash in physical gold and silver, as I don't trust any fiat currency and know you are just losing purchasing power by holding any of them unless you are an very active forex trader. Financial repression is the name of the western game, which slowly reduces the value of private capital in a way which isn't noticed.
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