Tech/Trend Analysis: Short/Intermediate Trade Signals

24Knews main news & discussion threads
Forum rules
Please read: 24Knews Forum Rules

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby triple-agent » Thu Feb 11, 2010 9:14 am

pix, i was reading the thread on gei yesterday where you made the comment to Dr.B that (paraphrasing) t.a. was ineffective on a cartel affected chart. Could it not be the case that you are both correct in that short-term charting is very susceptible to interference by cartel action but the longer-term charting should still show the trend?

For example, if we look at the short-term action in gold (2hr):

Image

The sudden rise and fall away from the trend could be the 'print' of manipulation. Whereas a look at the longer-term (daily), might show the true trends?

Image

To that end, 'are we there yet?' where golds concerned (or very near)
User avatar
triple-agent
Half Krug Member
Half Krug Member
Progress to next rank:
70.7%
 
Posts: 1618
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:20 pm

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Feb 11, 2010 11:04 am

triple-agent wrote:pix, i was reading the thread on gei yesterday where you made the comment to Dr.B that (paraphrasing) t.a. was ineffective on a cartel affected chart. Could it not be the case that you are both correct in that short-term charting is very susceptible to interference by cartel action but the longer-term charting should still show the trend?

Yes you have hit the nail on the head :)

I think that in the short term the charts are being painted by the gold cartel to make traders move in certain directions at certain times. I do believe that the longer term charts show their true intentions, which is to let gold increase in price.

IMO the gold cartel are the ones that are making the most money out of the fact that gold is increasing in price. They don't want it to become public knowledge that this is what is happening, so continually "paint" the charts to make it look otherwise. When they are about to let the price go up a lot, I think they will deliberately make things look like a longer term channel has been broken just before letting it increase, scaring out the traders so that they can cover some of their shorts. So really for investors the best time to be buying is when the outlook looks the bleakest.

I also believe that a trader trying to second guess what is happening can be easily caught out by their actions. That is why I have been saying for investors all they need to do is "Buy gold, relax and watch the show" ;)

triple-agent wrote:To that end, 'are we there yet?' where golds concerned (or very near)

Yes, I think so. But then they could also take things down a bit further to break the longer term channel if they are really in trouble.

Going from my 'pixel's lines' chart they may think they have done it enough already. In that they have broken the mid surge correction circle.

Image
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby fwiw » Thu Feb 11, 2010 12:45 pm

Pixel8r wrote:
triple-agent wrote:pix, i was reading the thread on gei yesterday where you made the comment to Dr.B that (paraphrasing) t.a. was ineffective on a cartel affected chart. Could it not be the case that you are both correct in that short-term charting is very susceptible to interference by cartel action but the longer-term charting should still show the trend?

Yes you have hit the nail on the head :)

I think that in the short term the charts are being painted by the gold cartel to make traders move in certain directions at certain times. I do believe that the longer term charts show their true intentions, which is to let gold increase in price.

IMO the gold cartel are the ones that are making the most money out of the fact that gold is increasing in price. They don't want it to become public knowledge that this is what is happening, so continually "paint" the charts to make it look otherwise. When they are about to let the price go up a lot, I think they will deliberately make things look like a longer term channel has been broken just before letting it increase, scaring out the traders so that they can cover some of their shorts. So really for investors the best time to be buying is when the outlook looks the bleakest.

I also believe that a trader trying to second guess what is happening can be easily caught out by their actions. That is why I have been saying for investors all they need to do is "Buy gold, relax and watch the show" ;)

triple-agent wrote:To that end, 'are we there yet?' where golds concerned (or very near)

Yes, I think so. But then they could also take things down a bit further to break the longer term channel if they are really in trouble.

Going from my 'pixel's lines' chart they may think they have done it enough already. In that they have broken the mid surge correction circle.

Image


I don't agree with you that the paper money gods think they have done enough. I am sure they want to break $1000 as this is a very significant psychological, round number.

Image

I have edited your picture and crossed out the purple circles (as I don't agree with them) and added a couple of parallel lines. The second parallel is where I hope to be a buyer at arround $980 - this will be like the sales for me and will be a buyer when everyone else will be selling! If it gets to $980 or lower then great - if she goes to the moon, then I am in economy class but at least i'm inside the rocket!
There is no SPOON deflation.
User avatar
fwiw
Half Krug Member
Half Krug Member
Progress to next rank:
52.5%
 
Posts: 1445
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 6:06 pm

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Feb 11, 2010 1:33 pm

fwiw wrote:I don't agree with you that the paper money gods think they have done enough. I am sure they want to break $1000 as this is a very significant psychological, round number.

They may feel that to break $1000 again is a 'bridge to far' especially with the China waiting to pickup more at below what India paid ($1040). Why would they let even more physical leave their hands at below $1k, surely even they are not that stupid.
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby triple-agent » Thu Feb 11, 2010 2:09 pm

fwiw wrote:
I don't agree with you that the paper money gods think they have done enough. I am sure they want to break $1000 as this is a very significant psychological, round number.

Image

I have edited your picture and crossed out the purple circles (as I don't agree with them) and added a couple of parallel lines.



The Q408 dip pattern had not occurred on the previous cycle, so i guess it's a 50-50 argument when previous bull moves are taken into consideration. Therefore, are we assuming that if the Q408 pattern is repeated it will be accompanied by multi-market sell-offs as well?. Personally speaking, i do not think we are in for a repeat of that in this current cycle - or rather we are not at that stage yet. All interesting discussion though of course.


fwiw wrote:The second parallel is where I hope to be a buyer at arround $980 - this will be like the sales for me and will be a buyer when everyone else will be selling! If it gets to $980 or lower then great - if she goes to the moon, then I am in economy class but at least i'm inside the rocket!



:D

(emphasis mine)
User avatar
triple-agent
Half Krug Member
Half Krug Member
Progress to next rank:
70.7%
 
Posts: 1618
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:20 pm

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Feb 11, 2010 2:22 pm

triple-agent wrote:The Q408 dip pattern had not occurred on the previous cycle, so i guess it's a 50-50 argument when previous bull moves are taken into consideration. Therefore, are we assuming that if the Q408 pattern is repeated it will be accompanied by multi-market sell-offs as well?. Personally speaking, i do not think we are in for a repeat of that in this current cycle - or rather we are not at that stage yet. All interesting discussion though of course.

My thinking is that we will go to around $1350 around the end of March then correct through the summer down to around $1050. This would equal the sell off of '08 as we went down to the height of the previous spike in '06.

I also feel this 2 year repeating pattern will break this year as when we get back to $1050 through the summer we will then be off on the next surge, breaking the 2 year pattern.

fwiw, I hope you aren't trading your core physical position and are just sticking to your metatrader account for trades.
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby fwiw » Thu Feb 11, 2010 3:07 pm

Pixel8r wrote:
triple-agent wrote:The Q408 dip pattern had not occurred on the previous cycle, so i guess it's a 50-50 argument when previous bull moves are taken into consideration. Therefore, are we assuming that if the Q408 pattern is repeated it will be accompanied by multi-market sell-offs as well?. Personally speaking, i do not think we are in for a repeat of that in this current cycle - or rather we are not at that stage yet. All interesting discussion though of course.

My thinking is that we will go to around $1350 around the end of March then correct through the summer down to around $1050. This would equal the sell off of '08 as we went down to the height of the previous spike in '06.

I also feel this 2 year repeating pattern will break this year as when we get back to $1050 through the summer we will then be off on the next surge, breaking the 2 year pattern.

fwiw, I hope you aren't trading your core physical position and are just sticking to your metatrader account for trades.


Not trading or even buying anymore physical for a while (too much going on with building work at home) - going to be patient and let the market come to me. My core position is for my grand children (not that I have any yet), and is not affected by anything silly I do!
There is no SPOON deflation.
User avatar
fwiw
Half Krug Member
Half Krug Member
Progress to next rank:
52.5%
 
Posts: 1445
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 6:06 pm

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby triple-agent » Fri Feb 19, 2010 8:50 am

we're approaching one of them 'decision' points with silver again, on the short-term 4hr chart, if silver holds the support line it needs to break through some resistance:

Image


looking out a bit further to the end of the month, silver needs to move upward to approx. $16.80, to keep the monthly support and $16.30 to keep the multi-month channel support:

Image


I am waiting for silver to tell me what it's doing rather than second guess it! in the words of CV in his latest piece, 'When In Doubt, Stay Out!' (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17329.html)
User avatar
triple-agent
Half Krug Member
Half Krug Member
Progress to next rank:
70.7%
 
Posts: 1618
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:20 pm

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Feb 19, 2010 10:07 am

triple-agent wrote:looking out a bit further to the end of the month, silver needs to move upward to approx. $16.80, to keep the monthly support and $16.30 to keep the multi-month channel support:

Image


I am waiting for silver to tell me what it's doing rather than second guess it! in the words of CV in his latest piece, 'When In Doubt, Stay Out!' (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17329.html)

I agree, a move through $17 would be very positive. I am thinking this break will happen after next thursdays options expiry.

The GBP Gold price is looking good, almost to new all time highs currently at £720.59 (think the all time high was around £730).
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Feb 20, 2010 11:04 am

"This market looks to me locked and loaded to the upside, I don't see anything wrong from a COT perspective.
This thing really looks good"
:D


viewtopic.php?f=12&t=156&p=2835#p2835
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby triple-agent » Sat Feb 20, 2010 5:23 pm

Pixel8r wrote:
"This market looks to me locked and loaded to the upside, I don't see anything wrong from a COT perspective.
This thing really looks good"
:D


viewtopic.php?f=12&t=156&p=2835#p2835


i am as schizophrenic as silver at the moment!

i have one foot in the 'this could be it' camp and one in the 'this correction ain't over yet' camp.

for me it's a case of seeing what particular pattern /trend is validated (short term) first, before both of my feet are together again!
User avatar
triple-agent
Half Krug Member
Half Krug Member
Progress to next rank:
70.7%
 
Posts: 1618
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:20 pm

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Feb 20, 2010 7:13 pm

triple-agent wrote:i am as schizophrenic as silver at the moment!

i have one foot in the 'this could be it' camp and one in the 'this correction ain't over yet' camp.

for me it's a case of seeing what particular pattern /trend is validated (short term) first, before both of my feet are together again!

I don't think this will be it as in a massive surge, but do think $1350 is still on the cards for early April (an extra $230 over a month isn't that much really). Everything has been falling into place for that to happen since the neckline broke on IHS in Sept '08. I was just glad to see that Ted was saying that the COT is now in the right place for it to happen as well.

Here's my original post from GEI in Sept '08;

Pixel8r wrote:Is there anything which looks negative about this chart, why all the gold bears holding out for a deflationary discount.

It looks to me that we have just broken through the resistance and are now moving into the next stage. Resistance becomes the new floor, which is on an angle not flat. I doubt very much we will see $900 again.

Gentlemen start your engines, $1350 here we come.

Image
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Feb 22, 2010 5:05 pm

Anyone looking for a short term trade should take a look at Endeavour Financial IMO, as usual DYODD.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=184&p=2936#p2935
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby triple-agent » Thu Feb 25, 2010 9:12 am

i'm buying here (lsil)

now watch it sink! :problem:
User avatar
triple-agent
Half Krug Member
Half Krug Member
Progress to next rank:
70.7%
 
Posts: 1618
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:20 pm

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Feb 25, 2010 9:49 am

Gann Global Financial latest video.

Red Alert: Commodities Should Be in an Explosive Position

Any comments on this super bullish outlook?
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Feb 26, 2010 12:26 am

Pixel8r wrote:Anyone looking for a short term trade should take a look at Endeavour Financial IMO, as usual DYODD.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=184&p=2936#p2935

EDV was up 12.30% today.

Hate to say I told you so. :lolno:
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Feb 26, 2010 11:04 pm

Pixel8r wrote:
Pixel8r wrote:Anyone looking for a short term trade should take a look at Endeavour Financial IMO, as usual DYODD.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=184&p=2936#p2935

EDV was up 12.30% today.

Hate to say I told you so. :lolno:

EDV up another 8.57% today.

Don't mean to blow my own trumpet. :lol:
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Mar 01, 2010 3:51 pm

Pixel8r wrote:
Pixel8r wrote:
Pixel8r wrote:Anyone looking for a short term trade should take a look at Endeavour Financial IMO, as usual DYODD.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=184&p=2936#p2935

EDV was up 12.30% today.

Hate to say I told you so. :lolno:

EDV up another 8.57% today.

Don't mean to blow my own trumpet. :lol:

EDV was up 7.90% more so far today.

Image
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby triple-agent » Mon Mar 01, 2010 4:24 pm

Pixel8r wrote:EDV was up 7.90% more so far today.

Image



good call :clap:

i'd buy you a virtual pint if i had bought them, but i haven't filled out that form that you have to do with selftrade to buy US/Canadian securities

another one for the list.... :cry:
User avatar
triple-agent
Half Krug Member
Half Krug Member
Progress to next rank:
70.7%
 
Posts: 1618
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:20 pm

Re: Tech. / Trend Analysis: Short / Intermediate Trade Signals

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Mar 01, 2010 4:26 pm

triple-agent wrote:
Pixel8r wrote:EDV was up 7.90% more so far today.

Image



good call :clap:

i'd buy you a virtual pint if i had bought them, but i haven't filled out that form that you have to do with selftrade to buy US/Canadian securities

another one for the list.... :cry:

If I am remembering correctly you can now fill out the form online. Not 100% sure though as I use a few services and have had to complete the form many times.

BTW I still think EDV has much further to go, so still time.
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 17892
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

PreviousNext

Return to Main Discussion Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


cron