Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

24Knews main news & discussion threads
Forum rules
Please read: 24Knews Forum Rules

Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Dec 18, 2010 11:11 am

Thought it was about time we had our own peak oil thread. Use this thread to discuss peak oil, alternative energy and your favourite energy stocks.

Here's a good interview to kick things off;

The Trade of the Century

James J Puplava CFP
Erik Townsend
The case for peak oil arriving sooner than later; investment opportunity this presents to the educated and nimble investor
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 18266
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby Midnight Gardener » Wed Mar 07, 2012 5:12 pm

Having joined this site today and spent just a little time searching the back posts, firstly I'd like to commend you for this interesting and thought provoking site. :clap:
The reason I am posting on this thread is because it is the awareness of Peak Oil that has guided my investment decisions over the last 6 -7 years. Due to my acceptance of this 'theory' and having thought about the implications of this momentous shift, I have been able to achieve a high level of financial dependence for my family.
It is not my intention to be boastful but to mearly highlight how important it is to grasp the big picture and then be bold enough to make the tough decisions necessary.
We have lived a fairly frugal exsistance on mid income salaries, each month we have had money to save and invest. Debts have always been paid down as soon as possible. In 2006 on a trip to Ireland I read Stephen Leeb's 'The Oil Factor Oil ' that book coupled with seeing the huge amount of house building throughout Ireland crystalised my thoughts and on returning we made it our plan to invest in PMs for the first time and to pay off the mortgage as soon as possible. In two years time we had paid off the mortgage, as we had never over extended ourselves in the first place. Within months oil hit $148 dollars and the mother of all financial crisises was playing out. The following year we were able to buy a few acres of land with some of our PM profits. This land, as well as being productive, has now increased quite substantially in value and provides us with food, leisure, space and fuel.
Time has moved on since 2006, peak oil is being discussed much more openly in the general informed media. The telegraph has run two articles one by Liam Halligan the other by AEP only just recently. Only this morning on R4 Business News a spokesperson from ASPO was explaining the Peak Oil sitution.
For my wife and I, we now found ourselves in a strong financial position compared to many in our peer group because we trusted our instincts and took a bold decision contary to the prevailing wisdom of the time.

Some of you here may think that peak oil is less important than the prevailing debt issues the world is trying to deal with. I wouldn't disagree, however the response that the ordinary man can make to these powerful forces that will shape our societies in the future are the same and I think you here know what they are.
It looks like I have the company of many like minded people on this site.
Plant a tree a year
User avatar
Midnight Gardener
New Drachma Holder
New Drachma Holder
Progress to next rank:
24%
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:15 pm

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby Pixel8r » Wed Mar 07, 2012 6:29 pm

Thanks for your kind words on the site. I want this site to be led by it's users so feel free to post on whatever interests you, I am sure we can find a place for most threads to live.

I have Stephen's oil factor book also, but never got around to finishing it's still in my pile of books to finish one day. I kind get the feeling we are looking at a case of pretty well peak everything except maybe paper currency and natural gas.

Been reading "Currency Wars" by Jim Rickards (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=40&p=16756#p16756) recently which I would highly recommend.
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
User avatar
Pixel8r
Founder
Founder
Rhodium Rocket
Rhodium Rocket
 
Posts: 18266
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:16 pm
Location: South West UK

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby InSilverWeTrust » Wed Mar 07, 2012 7:23 pm

Indeed MG. Monopoly currency/infinite growth meets peaking easy oil.

Have you watched the Collapse documentary (Mike Ruppert) ?

We are right at that plateau! The population v oil production graph is quite scary.

Someone posted this in the comments section on turds site -

Image
Random avatar
InSilverWeTrust
Quarter Krug Member
Quarter Krug Member
Progress to next rank:
13.1%
 
Posts: 536
Joined: Wed Dec 16, 2009 10:30 pm

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby Midnight Gardener » Wed Mar 07, 2012 7:45 pm



Have you watched the Collapse documentary (Mike Ruppert) ?


Yes, I have seen it but got the impression that the Doc maker was using it to highlight Mike Ruppert's obsession.
I'm not really a fan of MR, purely on his style. Of his peer group I prefer Howard James Kuntsler but that's purely because I find him more amusing. Maybe I'm shallow. :text-blondmoment:

Watch on youtube.com
Plant a tree a year
User avatar
Midnight Gardener
New Drachma Holder
New Drachma Holder
Progress to next rank:
24%
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:15 pm

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby Schaublin » Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:10 pm

Midnight Gardener wrote:

Have you watched the Collapse documentary (Mike Ruppert) ?


Yes, I have seen it but got the impression that the Doc maker was using it to highlight Mike Ruppert's obsession.
I'm not really a fan of MR, purely on his style. Of his peer group I prefer Howard James Kuntsler but that's purely because I find him more amusing. Maybe I'm shallow. :text-blondmoment:

Watch on youtube.com


Careful - things (and people) are not always what they seem. Go back eighty years to Russia and you would see what happened when people like Kunstler gain power - tens of millions of Russians and Ukrainians murdered.

This quote is worth thinking about: Kunstler’s Jewishness, the source of his fear and loathing of White people, weighs more heavily in his mind than anything he has said about Peak Oil, suburbs, walkable communities, relocalization, or the automobile. I can’t help but wonder whether or not this animus is the real source of his social criticism.

http://antisemitica.wordpress.com/2009/ ... nd-whites/
User avatar
Schaublin
Silver Eagle Member
Silver Eagle Member
Progress to next rank:
48.1%
 
Posts: 254
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 11:06 pm

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby Midnight Gardener » Wed Mar 07, 2012 10:22 pm

Would I vote Kunstsler? Probably not. Do I think he has something worth listening to regarding PO? Yes. The two things are entirely different.
Also I do think the video has some amusing quips!
Plant a tree a year
User avatar
Midnight Gardener
New Drachma Holder
New Drachma Holder
Progress to next rank:
24%
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:15 pm

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby fexx » Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:17 am

Midnight Gardener wrote:Having joined this site today and spent just a little time searching the back posts, firstly I'd like to commend you for this interesting and thought provoking site. :clap:
The reason I am posting on this thread is because it is the awareness of Peak Oil that has guided my investment decisions over the last 6 -7 years. Due to my acceptance of this 'theory' and having thought about the implications of this momentous shift, I have been able to achieve a high level of financial dependence for my family.
It is not my intention to be boastful but to mearly highlight how important it is to grasp the big picture and then be bold enough to make the tough decisions necessary.
We have lived a fairly frugal exsistance on mid income salaries, each month we have had money to save and invest. Debts have always been paid down as soon as possible. In 2006 on a trip to Ireland I read Stephen Leeb's 'The Oil Factor Oil ' that book coupled with seeing the huge amount of house building throughout Ireland crystalised my thoughts and on returning we made it our plan to invest in PMs for the first time and to pay off the mortgage as soon as possible. In two years time we had paid off the mortgage, as we had never over extended ourselves in the first place. Within months oil hit $148 dollars and the mother of all financial crisises was playing out. The following year we were able to buy a few acres of land with some of our PM profits. This land, as well as being productive, has now increased quite substantially in value and provides us with food, leisure, space and fuel.
Time has moved on since 2006, peak oil is being discussed much more openly in the general informed media. The telegraph has run two articles one by Liam Halligan the other by AEP only just recently. Only this morning on R4 Business News a spokesperson from ASPO was explaining the Peak Oil sitution.
For my wife and I, we now found ourselves in a strong financial position compared to many in our peer group because we trusted our instincts and took a bold decision contary to the prevailing wisdom of the time.

Some of you here may think that peak oil is less important than the prevailing debt issues the world is trying to deal with. I wouldn't disagree, however the response that the ordinary man can make to these powerful forces that will shape our societies in the future are the same and I think you here know what they are.
It looks like I have the company of many like minded people on this site.


Welcome aboard, you are in good company here - this site is full of nutters!

Seriously what you were saying about being bold enough to make tough decisions struck a real chord.

I bought heavily into PMs around 2005 and tried to convey my reason for this and fears about the property market, currencies, etc with my friends, family and partner.

The results varied from humour about my obvious lunacy to genuine anger. I have since made a point of shutting up.

After the last few years of rises in PMs, the mockery has been replaced by an uncomfortable silence, but I still know that I am 'the village idiot who keeps fluking it' .

I can't even discuss much of this with my partner, who although now accepts my deficiencies, does tend to share the same views that I'm a bit of a conspiracist nutter.

It is a very lonely place and being this much on the outside of mainstream thinking does make you tend to doubt your own beliefs.

Pix & all the regulars have made a great site here and it's one of the very, very few places where I feel at ease and able to discuss my whacky stance on things like currency collapse, PMs, peak resources, etc with like minded people.

I think someone mentioned that this site is like coming home and putting your feet up in front of the fire, and that's a great analogy.
Disclaimer - I am not backed by anything.
User avatar
fexx
Silver Eagle Member
Silver Eagle Member
Progress to next rank:
85.6%
 
Posts: 413
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2009 9:17 am

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby Midnight Gardener » Thu Mar 08, 2012 9:31 pm

Thanks fexx, I'm glad you enjoyed the post.
It seems that many on here have a similar experience, and I like you have gone through similar responses from my friends. Some of them actually are gradually coming to an understanding but they feel unable or unwilling to take any real steps to change their circumstance. I don't know if it's a cognitive dissonance, an inability to piece together the jigsaw and make long term decisions or a lack of being able to filter out the background noise they are subjected to every day.
Like you I seldom talk about it anymore I get on with my life with a new perspective and enjoy the simple pleasures and in the sense that understanding brings-feel completely free.
Plant a tree a year
User avatar
Midnight Gardener
New Drachma Holder
New Drachma Holder
Progress to next rank:
24%
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:15 pm

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby Hooloovoo » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:51 am

fexx wrote:
Welcome aboard, you are in good company here - this site is full of nutters!

Seriously what you were saying about being bold enough to make tough decisions struck a real chord.

I bought heavily into PMs around 2005 and tried to convey my reason for this and fears about the property market, currencies, etc with my friends, family and partner.

The results varied from humour about my obvious lunacy to genuine anger. I have since made a point of shutting up.

After the last few years of rises in PMs, the mockery has been replaced by an uncomfortable silence, but I still know that I am 'the village idiot who keeps fluking it' .

I can't even discuss much of this with my partner, who although now accepts my deficiencies, does tend to share the same views that I'm a bit of a conspiracist nutter.

It is a very lonely place and being this much on the outside of mainstream thinking does make you tend to doubt your own beliefs.

Pix & all the regulars have made a great site here and it's one of the very, very few places where I feel at ease and able to discuss my whacky stance on things like currency collapse, PMs, peak resources, etc with like minded people.

I think someone mentioned that this site is like coming home and putting your feet up in front of the fire, and that's a great analogy.


What an excellent description Fexx - that is me exactly.

I got interested in Silver in 2007 when it was trading at 12 $.
It took a while to persuade my partner, so didn't start buying untill at 20 $ in 2008 (the best argument to convince most people is unfortunatley that if it has doubled within a year it must be a good investment :problem: )

But when we finally were serious about buying we were serious about buying - I took out a loan for an apartment (without security) and accidently bought Silver for the money - at that time Silver had just corrected from 20 $ to 18 $ and I thought my timing was excellent 8-) - that is untill we got the collapse and Silver fell to 8 $ something :shock:
Try explaining that to Your wife :doh:

I foresaw the economic collapse (due to my flirtation with Austrian economics) but I honestly expected Gold and Silver would rocket on the back of it.
I think many here who bought PM's before the collapse had the same idea.

It made me a bit suspicious and opened my mind to the idea of manipulation - although one could rightfully say that blaming someone else is not really opening your mind :D

I never had doubt in Silver though.

At that time I had a fixed income job with good salary and EVERYTHING I earned went into Silver all the way down to 8 $ something and back up again.

So I gues I am a nutter - instead of getting scared of having indebted myself and seeing the value cut in half while the debt stayed the same (that part did freak out my wife) I kept buying more - Hunt brother junior :D

Realising that I was the laughing stock of the family I thought that the best way to show my family why I did what I did - was to write what economic knowledge I had gathered down in a book.

I honestly believed that it would help to persuade them if they just knew what I know - so I basically wrote an idiots guide to Austrian economics in a very simple language so anybody could read it - and poetically called it "Why economists can't predict sh*t".
A lot of work went into it - and if it tought me anything it was the futility of being a lone voice trying to fight group think with logic.

Being autididact doesn't increase ones reliability in the eyes of the group - although it is the only way to learn many of these things as the establishment often has a different view and teaches conformity.
Discipline is the key to conformity and it is important that we learn not to question authority at an early age.

Without a conscise set of rules we would probably all have to resort to commen sense :lol:

I never liked to be limited by rules, although following a set of rules saves you from making decisions yourself.

Not questioning anything and just following rules eventually leads to absurdities.

In the 60's there was an experiment with some monkeys and a banana.
The banana was hung above a ladder.
Naturally the monkey wanted the banana - but as soon as he started climbing the ladder he was sprayed with cold water.
Not only that - but every other monkey in the room was sprayed with cold water too.
This eventually lead to a "Pavlovs dog" reaction in the monkeys that combined climbing the ladder with being sprayed with cold water.
As soon as this reaction was established a new monkey was lead in to the room - and as soon as the new monkey, who didn't have a clue what was going on, reached for the ladder he was attacked by the already indoctrinated monkeys.

One of the original monkeys would be removed (it was not a big room) and a new one would be let into the room.
Naturally the new one would head straight for the banana, but would again be attacked by the other monkeys before reaching the ladder.
Interestingly one of the monkeys attacking didn't have a clue why he was doing so - as he hadn't been in the original experiment, but still took part in the attacking with enthusiasm.
This circulation of monkeys meant that eventually none of the monkeys in the room had been part of the original experiment - hence none of them had been sprayed with cold water - but they would still attack any new monkey who would head for the banana and they would all stay the f**k away from the ladder.

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Did_the_monkey_banana_and_water_spray_experiment_ever_take_place
http://www.scribd.com/doc/73492989/Stephenson-1966-Cultural-Acquisition-of-a-Specific-Learned-Response-Among-Rhesus-Monkeys

It's not polite to compare people with monkeys, but once conformity is achieved it is difficult to get different ideas through for all the "replacement monkeys" pointing and screaming as soon as anyone approaches the ladder.


Okay basically what I wanted to say is that it is interesting that people who end up in this forum in many cases have had basically the same experiences despite coming from different parts of the World.
And basically all of us have experienced the futility of making friends and families understand what we ourselves find so obvious.

Very interesting to read about Fexx and Midnight Gardener.


The reason I came here to the peak oil thread though was just that I stumbled upon an article where it's said that Los Angeles in 1963 was offered a monorail transit system for free, and that this would have been the start of monorails in all the big American cities:

In 1963, Los Angeles politicians were given an offer too good to refuse. The Alweg Monorail Company, which had gained world-wide recognition for its demonstration monorail at the 1962 Seattle Century 21 Exposition, was looking to establish a major foothold in the world of urban rail transit. "We are pleased to submit this day a proposal to finance and construct an Alweg Monorail rapid transit system 43 miles in length, serving the San Fernando Valley, the Wilshire corridor, the San Bernardino corridor and downtown Los Angeles." So wrote Sixten Holmquist, then President of the Alweg Rapid Transit Systems in his June 4, 1963 letter to the Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA).

A former Alweg engineer once told me that there was much excitement for the proposal at the time, that is until Standard Oil got involved. Practically overnight support for the project disappeared amongst LA politicians. What could have been the start of monorail construction all across the USA was stopped cold before it even got started.


EDIT - I forgot to add the link:http://www.monorails.org/tmspages/la1963.html

So basically Big Oil managed to prevent mass transit construction, which is very poor in the US today.

A lot of our problems - present and future, have been enlarged by politicians taking special interest into consideration at the cost of everyone else :liar: - including Peak Oil.
User avatar
Hooloovoo
Silver Eagle Member
Silver Eagle Member
Progress to next rank:
66%
 
Posts: 330
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Russia

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby triple-agent » Mon Sep 02, 2013 11:26 am » Firefox 23.0 Firefox 23.0  Windows XP Windows XP  Screen Resolution: 1280 x 960 1280 x 960

Image

platinum and oil have very similar patterns

Image
User avatar
triple-agent
Half Krug Member
Half Krug Member
Progress to next rank:
70.7%
 
Posts: 1618
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:20 pm

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby Acton Boy » Mon Sep 02, 2013 10:18 pm » Safari Mobile 6.0 Safari Mobile 6.0  iPad iPad  Screen Resolution: 768 x 1024 768 x 1024

TA I'm impressed with your observation.
What made you see the link ?
Random avatar
Acton Boy
Silver Eagle Member
Silver Eagle Member
Progress to next rank:
78.3%
 
Posts: 382
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:24 pm

Re: Peak Oil (trade of the century?)

Postby triple-agent » Tue Sep 03, 2013 10:16 am » Firefox 23.0 Firefox 23.0  Windows XP Windows XP  Screen Resolution: 1280 x 960 1280 x 960

Acton Boy » Mon Sep 02, 2013 10:18 pm wrote:TA I'm impressed with your observation.
What made you see the link ?


just playing about with the charts really. if oil breaks resistance and starts to make higher highs, it will be interesting to see what platinum does this time.
User avatar
triple-agent
Half Krug Member
Half Krug Member
Progress to next rank:
70.7%
 
Posts: 1618
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:20 pm


Return to Main Discussion Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests


cron