On the other hand...

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On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Thu Dec 10, 2009 2:01 pm

I have just been reading some of the posts on GEI. One of the critisms of this site is that we will all just become another 'group think' site.

So in order to address this issue, I hereby declare this thread the one where we debate the issues from the other point of view.

So, in real life I am pro-gold, but in this thread I may become anti-gold and may post some charts where I will be shorting gold!

What do you think? Can you handle an anti-gold fwiw?

:lol:
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Schaublin » Thu Dec 10, 2009 2:09 pm

fwiw wrote:I have just been reading some of the posts on GEI. One of the critisms of this site is that we will all just become another 'group think' site.

So in order to address this issue, I hereby declare this thread the one where we debate the issues from the other point of view.

So, in real life I am pro-gold, but in this thread I may become anti-gold and may post some charts where I will be shorting gold!

What do you think? Can you handle an anti-gold fwiw?

:lol:


Might be easier to invite aliveandkicking over :D
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby igglepiggle » Thu Dec 10, 2009 2:15 pm

Schaublin wrote:
Might be easier to invite aliveandkicking over :D

Please don't, I haven't found the ignore function here yet.
"Wisdom often falls from the mouths of fools."
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Dec 10, 2009 2:45 pm

PersonalIy I don't want this site to just degenerate into arguments like those that were happening on GEI. I am sure all that are here are intelligent enough to discuss things as the current situation changes and will not be lead with one way of thinking. I have no problem talking about anything, but when it ends up with silly p*ss take pictures and "Gold Bulls clawing the sky" threads it was time to move on.

I also have no problem with you making an anti gold thread fwiw and think it will be useful. You could even try and get some of the cartel to post in it :lol:
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:25 pm

To make sure we are showing the other angles;

Beware the Goldbug Infestation

By MARK HULBERT

Contrarians know that the high levels of bullishness for the precious metal can't be good for prices in the short term.


THE GOLD MARKET HAS suffered an enormous amount of volatility over the last few trading sessions. From its high trade on Thursday, Dec. 3, through Tuesday's close, Comex's spot gold contract shed $75, or 6.1%.

Unfortunately, according to contrarian analysis, we are likely to see more downside volatility over the next several weeks.

This sobering assessment can be traced to the high levels of bullishness that currently prevail among gold market timers. Current bullishness is higher, in fact, than on the occasion of each of the last four intermediate-term tops in the gold market.

Consider the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold-market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. Its latest reading is 68%, which means that the average gold timer is recommending that 68% of his client's gold portfolios be invested on the long side.

More..
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby grumpy-old-man » Fri Dec 11, 2009 8:32 am

Pixel8r wrote:To make sure we are showing the other angles;



nice one, we all need to do this from time to time.

For me unless something changes in world 'TPTB' approach, then nothing changes in my strategy. The damage they have already done will take decades to put right anyway even they changed their approach next week.
I though RH might have joined by now.......even just for a bit'o'banter.... ;)
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Fri Dec 11, 2009 11:15 am

Here we go - one of Bubb's favourites!

From http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/12/a-flurry-of-emergency-updates-suport-the-santa-rally.html

[Anti-fwiw mode on]
Neely has launched a plethora of updates this morning before the open. Given that the market has moved as he expected, I see it ok to set forth his calls since his subscribers have had time to react.

His S&P count had been on edge - two formations of about equal probability - and this morning he now sees that that the Santa Rally is on! (My words, not his.) Hence, get out of shorts. The Euro/Dollar dance has become unclear, so he says to stay aside - this is consistent with a major change of trend but potentially one more reversal up in the Euro before the strong move down (and up in the Dollar).

Gold has clearly peaked, at least for a while - the move down is faster than the move up and has broken far enough down to confirm a serious drop.

What is great about Neely's service is this bulletin get his traders out quickly enough that (if they followed his advice pre-market open) they still lock in a profit on a recent short. My type of trading service!

[Anti-fwiw mode off]
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:39 am

The USD Index is approaching it's 100 day moving average( arround 76.8), if she breaks through that then I may be convinced with Prechter.

[anti-fwiw mode on]

[youtube]0V_xchudC40[/youtube]

[anti-fwiw mode off]
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Mon Dec 14, 2009 3:19 pm

I don't think any of this hurts the general outlook of this site which is clearly long physical gold/silver, as we all read these articles anyway and just go`phh what a load of sh*t` or `yeh righty oh` and move on. What I'm trying to say but failing misserably, is a bad gold article is as bullish as a good article if you know what I mean.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

Charles de Gaulle
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Mon Dec 14, 2009 3:55 pm

warpig wrote:I don't think any of this hurts the general outlook of this site which is clearly long physical gold/silver, as we all read these articles anyway and just go`phh what a load of ****` or `yeh righty oh` and move on. What I'm trying to say but failing misserably, is a bad gold article is as bullish as a good article if you know what I mean.


We all need to be wary of being accused of groupthink!

As nothing goes in a straight line, we should always try and see the other point of view if only to help time physical purchases!
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Mon Dec 14, 2009 9:57 pm

Anyone that's spent anytime collectively reading our posts @ GEI will realise we're a fairly balanced bunch of blokes, I won't be posting articles I don't believe in to keep the status quo, I will only post articles I feel represent my point of view.

Let's be honest, we're clearly all free thinkers here, I won't be lead by anyone although I may agree with them.`Groupthink`, I think not...

fwiw wrote:We all need to be wary of being accused of groupthink!

As nothing goes in a straight line, we should always try and see the other point of view if only to help time physical purchases!
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

Charles de Gaulle
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:12 pm

Roubini Blasts "The Barbarous Relic," Recommends Spam Over Gold

Posted on 14 December 2009

Nouriel Roubini writes an extended article slamming both gold bugs, and the so-called gold bubble, which he believes is far too volatile, and which, contrary to ever increasing claims to the opposite, will likely not get to the mythical price of $2000/ounce, and instead will head lower.
The argument presented, as is widely the case, boils down to the trifecta of i)gold having no industrial utility, ii) no intrinsic value (no associated cash flow streams) and iii) costing an arm and a leg to store. While Roubini’s thesis is attractive on the surface (if somewhat Keynesian and thus often reiterated by mainstream Economists), we present some counter arguments to Roubini’s thesis……………………………….Full Article: Source
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Mon Dec 14, 2009 10:22 pm

What a surprise, Roubini talking the dollar book again... :roll:

Pixel8r wrote:Roubini Blasts "The Barbarous Relic," Recommends Spam Over Gold

Posted on 14 December 2009

Nouriel Roubini writes an extended article slamming both gold bugs, and the so-called gold bubble, which he believes is far too volatile, and which, contrary to ever increasing claims to the opposite, will likely not get to the mythical price of $2000/ounce, and instead will head lower.
The argument presented, as is widely the case, boils down to the trifecta of i)gold having no industrial utility, ii) no intrinsic value (no associated cash flow streams) and iii) costing an arm and a leg to store. While Roubini’s thesis is attractive on the surface (if somewhat Keynesian and thus often reiterated by mainstream Economists), we present some counter arguments to Roubini’s thesis……………………………….Full Article: Source
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

Charles de Gaulle
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:01 pm

fwiw wrote:The USD Index is approaching it's 100 day moving average( arround 76.8), if she breaks through that then I may be convinced with Prechter.

76.92 now
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Tue Dec 15, 2009 3:33 pm

Pixel8r wrote:
fwiw wrote:The USD Index is approaching it's 100 day moving average( arround 76.8), if she breaks through that then I may be convinced with Prechter.

76.92 now


Just looking at TA would make you think USD will get stronger. Broken through 50 day SMA and 100 day SMA. Either a fantastic shorting opportunity with minimal risk on upside, or a real trend change.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p30006926936

I'm not sure I can be convinced yet. Need to be patient and see what she's got.

If USD strengthens then will stocks pop? or just gold? We all know what the fiat money masters want to achieve.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby triple-agent » Tue Dec 15, 2009 3:37 pm

fwiw wrote:
Pixel8r wrote:
fwiw wrote:The USD Index is approaching it's 100 day moving average( arround 76.8), if she breaks through that then I may be convinced with Prechter.

76.92 now


Just looking at TA would make you think USD will get stronger. Broken through 50 day SMA and 100 day SMA. Either a fantastic shorting opportunity with minimal risk on upside, or a real trend change.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p30006926936

I'm not sure I can be convinced yet. Need to be patient and see what she's got.

If USD strengthens then will stocks pop? or just gold? We all know what the fiat money masters want to achieve.



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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Fri Dec 18, 2009 11:10 pm

[Anti-fwiw Mode ON]

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/investing-strategy/2009/12/17/the-great-gold-bubble.aspx?source=ufwflwlnk0000001

Investors these days seem to lurch from bubble to bubble, chasing whatever the "word on the street" says is the latest, greatest, thing. Of course, we've seen such phenomena since the day investors were invented, what with the famous South Seas bubble, the tulip craze, and all that, but they do seem to be getting more frequent of late.

We had the housing bubble of the eighties, the internet bubble of 2000, and another housing bubble just burst (though people are still arguing about that one).

And now we have a gold bubble.

It's been inflating for a while, but just take a look at the latest gold price charts, and tell me you don't see a bubble there. Bouncing around $900 for the past couple of years, the latter half of this year has seen the price surge to over $1,200.

Everyone, including taxi drivers and the proverbial man in the pub, is talking about how gold is a great investment, high streets around the country are increasingly adorned with "Sell us your gold" signs, and people are holding gold sales parties. And there are plenty of people out there telling us the price is heading for $3,000 or even higher.


[Anti-fwiw Mode OFF]

Is greed a bubble?
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Dec 18, 2009 11:26 pm

fwiw wrote:[Anti-fwiw Mode ON]

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/investing-strategy/2009/12/17/the-great-gold-bubble.aspx?source=ufwflwlnk0000001

Investors these days seem to lurch from bubble to bubble, chasing whatever the "word on the street" says is the latest, greatest, thing. Of course, we've seen such phenomena since the day investors were invented, what with the famous South Seas bubble, the tulip craze, and all that, but they do seem to be getting more frequent of late.

We had the housing bubble of the eighties, the internet bubble of 2000, and another housing bubble just burst (though people are still arguing about that one).

And now we have a gold bubble.

It's been inflating for a while, but just take a look at the latest gold price charts, and tell me you don't see a bubble there. Bouncing around $900 for the past couple of years, the latter half of this year has seen the price surge to over $1,200.

Everyone, including taxi drivers and the proverbial man in the pub, is talking about how gold is a great investment, high streets around the country are increasingly adorned with "Sell us your gold" signs, and people are holding gold sales parties. And there are plenty of people out there telling us the price is heading for $3,000 or even higher.


[Anti-fwiw Mode OFF]

Is greed a bubble?

I will be more worried that we are at the top when everywhere is trying to sell you gold, rather than buy it off you for 25p on the pound.
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Fri Dec 18, 2009 11:29 pm

We will have sold in to strength by then... :)

Pixel8r wrote:
fwiw wrote:[Anti-fwiw Mode ON]

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/investing-strategy/2009/12/17/the-great-gold-bubble.aspx?source=ufwflwlnk0000001

Investors these days seem to lurch from bubble to bubble, chasing whatever the "word on the street" says is the latest, greatest, thing. Of course, we've seen such phenomena since the day investors were invented, what with the famous South Seas bubble, the tulip craze, and all that, but they do seem to be getting more frequent of late.

We had the housing bubble of the eighties, the internet bubble of 2000, and another housing bubble just burst (though people are still arguing about that one).

And now we have a gold bubble.

It's been inflating for a while, but just take a look at the latest gold price charts, and tell me you don't see a bubble there. Bouncing around $900 for the past couple of years, the latter half of this year has seen the price surge to over $1,200.

Everyone, including taxi drivers and the proverbial man in the pub, is talking about how gold is a great investment, high streets around the country are increasingly adorned with "Sell us your gold" signs, and people are holding gold sales parties. And there are plenty of people out there telling us the price is heading for $3,000 or even higher.


[Anti-fwiw Mode OFF]

Is greed a bubble?

I will be more worried that we are at the top when everywhere is trying to sell you gold, rather than buy it off you for 25p on the pound.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

Charles de Gaulle
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fexx » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:17 pm

fwiw wrote:The USD Index is approaching it's 100 day moving average( arround 76.8), if she breaks through that then I may be convinced with Prechter.


Prechter has made some good calls, and Bubb seems to regard him highly.

Unfortunately, I think he is way out in the PMs market, in particular AU.

Why? His predictions are based on Elliott Wave theory which ignores many of the fundamentals. More importantly however, the theory uses market psychology in attempting to predict what is possibly the most manipulated market in the world.
Disclaimer - I am not backed by anything.
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