On the other hand...

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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fexx » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:31 pm

On the other hand...

Bubb posted this on GEI re: Prechter

Per Yelnick:
Prechter as Top-Rated Short-Term, Dead Last Long-Term

Prechter's EWI comes out as the best short term service over the past two years. This will surprise a lot of Prechter bashers. His problem is his Lost Decade from 1994-2004, where he missed the extended fifth wave aka the dot-com bubble. He got his mojo back in 2005, and is rated in this article as the best since 2007.

From my own tally, he called the top in June 2007, which while a bit early was a great call, as the July and Oct tops were not much higher and his followers could not only avoid the debacle but play it all the way down. He called the bottom in late Feb 2009, just a few weeks away from the Mar6 bottom. He called the top in early August, a bit early; in reading his services I didn't think we got there until late Aug. We are only modestly up from then (5%). Now he has gone all in with his leveraged 200% short call. Monday it looked like a turkey; but today it looks prescient, given the meltdown overseas and the US futures


http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/ind ... t&p=144057


I'm sure he's called the top in AU wrongly quite a few times??? I wonder if there is a way of cataloguing Prechters' calls on AU and seeing how close he is in this particular market, as I do not believe that EWT can work here.

How would you evaluate his calls in this market?
Disclaimer - I am not backed by anything.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby igglepiggle » Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:40 am

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15950.html
Big overseas Treasury holders such China and Japan are believed to have “strong-armed” the US in the recent past behind the scenes and essentially said “You either quit undermining your currency and defrauding us with your zero interest rate policy or we are going to dump them, big time, and collapse the Treasury market.” The Treasury market is the “aorta” of the US, which involves swapping essentially worthless paper for the goods and services of countries that are dumb enough to buy them, thus allowing the US to live way beyond its means running continuous massive deficits. It is viewed by the administration as infinitely more important than the stockmarket, which is small in comparison. It is thus clear that if it is necessary to sacrifice the stockmarket by raising interest rates to rescue the Treasury market, then that is what’s going to happen. The rising Treasury yield curve, which has recently become very steep is indicating that rate rises are in the pipeline.

Smart Money has already got wind of this and has been stampeding to close out US dollar carry trade positions, hence the breakout and sharp rise in the dollar, and the plunge in gold. The ordinary Joe sat rustling his newspaper hasn’t got the faintest idea of what is going on as usual. Given the magnitude of the US dollar carry trade positions that have built up this year on the back of unprecedented negative real interest rates in the US it should be obvious that a intensifying stampede out of them could easily drive a massive dollar spike, perhaps considerably larger than the one we saw last year, especially given the precarious condition of many countries in the European Union. In this situation commodities and the stockmarket will be trashed.
"Wisdom often falls from the mouths of fools."
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby hotairmail » Mon Dec 21, 2009 8:59 pm

Dollars are not 'worthless pieces of paper'. They are claims on real world assets. If you see the worth of your claims being devalued by further variable value claims being issued, then you have to try and swap them for real world assets quick.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:45 pm

Here's a laughable article where the author quotes such sages as Jon Nadler and Nouriel Roubini.

Olive: Don't believe hype over gold
Investing zealots betting the precious metal will top $15,000 U.S. an ounce in the years to come will see their bubble burst – again

…Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Metals Inc., says gold has been riding a "bubble" of "hot air." The Montreal gold expert, noting gold's historic role as a hedge against the world going to hell in a hand basket, warns: "Don't get carried away with scenarios of Mad Max," referring to the film set in an apocalyptic future…
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby markinspain » Tue Dec 29, 2009 8:19 am

John Nadler is either a moron or paid extremely well to write the rubbish he gets away with on Kitco.
People say, "Don't you miss it, Mark?" I say, "What, England? Nah. f**king place. It's a dump. Don't make me laugh. Grey, grimy, sooty. What a sh*t hole. What a toilet. Every **** with a long face shuffling about, moaning, all worried. No thanks, not for me." They say, "What's it like, then, Spain?" And I'll say, "It's hot. Hot. Oh, it's f**king hot. Too hot? Not for me, I love it."
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Dec 29, 2009 9:41 am

markinspain wrote:John Nadler is either a moron or paid extremely well to write the rubbish he gets away with on Kitco.

Check the article out above by David Olive, he has got to qualify as moron of the year.

Gold, truth to tell, is a lousy investment. It pays no dividends and incurs high storage costs. It is illiquid (try paying for groceries with a gold bar). And it's in almost infinite supply.
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby wren » Tue Dec 29, 2009 9:42 am

markinspain wrote:John Nadler is either a moron or paid extremely well to write the rubbish he gets away with on Kitco.

Some suggest that for Kitco, Nadler serves as a sort of insurance policy. So they cannot be accused of only ever being bullish.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Tue Dec 29, 2009 12:13 pm

Pixel8r wrote:
markinspain wrote:John Nadler is either a moron or paid extremely well to write the rubbish he gets away with on Kitco.

Check the article out above by David Olive, he has got to qualify as moron of the year.

Gold, truth to tell, is a lousy investment. It pays no dividends and incurs high storage costs. It is illiquid (try paying for groceries with a gold bar). And it's in almost infinite supply.


The thing is that the "Gold is a lousy investment" is exactly the way most people who work in financial services describe gold. One guy once told me that the stock market was more exciting and that's why he hates gold. He said it was boring.

I told him I'd like all my investments to be extremely boring then.
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Thu Dec 31, 2009 9:19 am

Robert Prechter...

[youtube]7v0EuUj2WOM[/youtube]
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby d2thdr » Sat Jan 02, 2010 9:05 pm

Would love all the Gold Bears to be proven right and gold drops to 300$/oz. I load up and I am sure so would all of you here. Que sera sera.

Happy new year guys.
In the world today there are only three assets, gold, oil and currencies. The paper currencies, so long admired and accepted are now in a war of self destruction. They will consume each other in an end battle of "I'm the last man standing but have lost all use as a unit of value".
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Wed Jan 06, 2010 9:49 am

You have got to read this!!

Saxo Bank has released its annual "Outrageous Predictions", this year predicting devaluation of the CNY, the emergence of a third political party in the US, a massive fall in the price of sugar, a positive US trade balance for the first time since the 1975 oil crisis, and that the US Social Security Trust Fund will go bust.

The Copenhagen-headquartered online trading and investment specialist’s ten predictions are an annual thought exercise to predict rare but high impact ‘black swan’ events that are beyond the realm of normal market expectations. The exercise aims to challenge market conceptions. Compiled as part of the bank’s 2010 Outlook, the claims this year paint a picture of a more positive year ahead but with a few tremors along the way.

Saxo Bank’s outrageous claims for 2010 include:

• CNY to be devalued by 5% vs. USD (now @ 6.8250)
Gold falls to $870 (currently @ $1130)
• Angry American public to form third party in the US

To read more about these predictions, please click here.

Yours Sincerely,

Saxo Bank
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Wed Jan 06, 2010 4:00 pm

Another must read: :lol:

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/ne ... wFull=True

If only for the comments!!!

The bear case for gold
By James Phillipps | 00:01:00 | 06 January 2010

Citywire scours the web for the best writing from across the world. Find out What We are Reading here.
Gold has been one of the best performing asset classes over the last five years delivering annualised returns of over 20% for sterling investors.

The precious metal hit a record high of $1,217 in December and although the price has since slipped back to $1,127, a whole welter of fund managers are tipping it to even go as high as $1,500 next year.

Unusually, the argument for a continued upswing in the gold price is being put forward by both inflationists and deflationists, which is starting to worry some contrarians.

‘Everyone seems to be bullish on gold whether they expect inflation or deflation, which does not leave room for any other scenario,’ says Bechara Madi, head of macro at Matrix Money Management. ‘When everyone agrees, that is the time to start worrying.’

The inflationists’ argument is logical. The metal has traditionally been used as an inflation hedge and many are expecting inflation to pick up, particularly in the first quarter, with higher fuel costs and the VAT increase being cited as major drivers in the UK.
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby triple-agent » Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:32 pm

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16283.html

perhaps not quite a "On the other hand..." article, but it does look at the 1220ish peak in gold as being it for a while (as 1 of 2 scenarios). Interestingly, they use the pixel8r lines on one of their graphs:

Image

here's one of the dollar (that i must admit looks very convincing):

Image
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:58 am

Dollar has hit bottom, China says
Sovereign wealth fund strategist also argues gold is too expensive and says China may raise interest rates before U.S. does

An investment strategist at China's $300-billion (U.S.) wealth fund said the world's third-largest economy now had a say in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, which it expects to rise while the yen should fall further.

The comments by Peng Junming, who works in the asset allocation and strategic research department at China Investment Corp, triggered a rally in the U.S. dollar.

“I think the dollar is at its bottom now. There will be very limited space for the dollar to drop further,” he told an academic forum. “The yen is what, I think, has the worst outlook. The yen will continue to drop, unlike the dollar, which will not serve for long as a source of funding carry trades.”


No Need for Gold

Mr. Peng noted that China's stash of dollars enabled it to influence commodities markets. Commodities like oil are priced in dollars and the prices tend to move inversely to the dollar.

“We can weigh down or push up the dollar exchange rate, which will have an impact on the global commodity futures market.”

Mr. Peng was explicit in his view on gold: “China should have the right attitude about investing in gold. There is no urgent need for China to increase gold buying for now, because prices are high.”
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:28 pm

Beware the 4 new asset bubbles

Here we go again

Investors are rushing to gold, because they rightly fear far higher inflation in the next couple of years and want to hedge against both rising prices and a declining dollar with a commodity that, they claim, has a fixed supply.

Since early 2009, the price has jumped to $1,100 an ounce from $875, triple its average price between 1990 and 2004. Yet the supply of gold is far more fluid than the gold bugs admit, partly because mining companies are investing heavily to increase production.

The real threat: Prices are so high all over the world that people who once treasured their gold jewelry are now rushing to sell it. Swiss refiners are offering irresistible prices for bracelets and brooches, "cash-for-gold" stores are in Chicago malls, and suburbanites are hosting Tupperware-style parties where neighbors show up to hock their gold teeth.

When this happened in the early 1980s with silver, prices plummeted from $50 to $15 in less than a year. Look for gold to end up below $500 an ounce within two years…

:lol: :lol: :lol:
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:49 pm

5 Reasons Gold Is The Next Bubble To Burst

1. Gold is not trading off fundamentals. By a recent measure by the World Gold Council, the vast majority of the global gold supply is held in vaults or worn as jewelry. This implies that supply constraints are not an issue and annual gold production levels from major producers such as Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) and Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) aren't something to be overly concerned about. Additionally, demand for gold in the form of jewelry and industrial production has plummeted in sympathy with the global economic slowdown.

2. Gold is a terrible long-term investment. Gold's last high of just over $825 per ounce in 1980 is equivalent to approximately $2,300 in today's dollars, after factoring in the inflation of this time period. Even with the recent run up, gold falls well below inflation-adjusted levels of three decades ago.

3. Gold does not produce income or perform like other investments. Gold does not pay a dividend like bonds, does not have an income stream like stocks and is not consumed like consumer staples or energy. As such, it only trades on what investors are willing to pay for it. And investors have a history of becoming excessively optimistic and greedy.

4. The recent price run is purely momentum-driven. A December "Wall Street Journal" article stated that the price of gold had risen in 21 of 24 trading sessions. In less than two months, its price had jumped more than 20% after hitting $1,000 per ounce in mid-September. As Galbraith details, expectations (and not fundamentals) are responsible for sending gold prices upward.

5. Barrick Gold recently removed its gold hedges. On September 8, 2009, Barrick Gold, the world's largest gold producer, reported its intent to remove the hedges that protect it against gold price declines. The company is raising $3 billion by issuing shares to pay off the hedges, which very well could indicate reckless bullishness as gold prices peak out.
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:42 pm

More clueless mainstream media analysis of gold for the next couple of years. This guy thinks it is on it's way to $250 an ounce!!!

Love Affair With Gold Turns Rocky

By Dan Dorfman - January 25, 2010 06:50 PM

...Under such a projected scenario, Dent looks for gold to drop to $250 an ounce, a giant-sized slide that he expects will begin to kick off this year. "The fact of investment life," he says, "is that the dollar is now going up and gold is now going down, meaning it's time to sell gold..."
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(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Wed Jan 27, 2010 4:50 pm

There certainly does seem to be a lot of really bad reporting currently going which completely fails to talk about the fundamentals of gold, like the fact that the central banks have now turned buyers after years of selling making up the supply/demand shortage. The fact that gold is a monetary metal and with the amount of money being printed it has got to catch up.

It is making me think these articles are being placed in the media, anyone else have a view?
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Wed Jan 27, 2010 5:04 pm

This article makes me cringe...

Pixel8r wrote:5 Reasons Gold Is The Next Bubble To Burst

1. Gold is not trading off fundamentals. By a recent measure by the World Gold Council, the vast majority of the global gold supply is held in vaults or worn as jewelry. This implies that supply constraints are not an issue and annual gold production levels from major producers such as Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) and Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) aren't something to be overly concerned about. Additionally, demand for gold in the form of jewelry and industrial production has plummeted in sympathy with the global economic slowdown.

2. Gold is a terrible long-term investment. Gold's last high of just over $825 per ounce in 1980 is equivalent to approximately $2,300 in today's dollars, after factoring in the inflation of this time period. Even with the recent run up, gold falls well below inflation-adjusted levels of three decades ago.

3. Gold does not produce income or perform like other investments. Gold does not pay a dividend like bonds, does not have an income stream like stocks and is not consumed like consumer staples or energy. As such, it only trades on what investors are willing to pay for it. And investors have a history of becoming excessively optimistic and greedy.

4. The recent price run is purely momentum-driven. A December "Wall Street Journal" article stated that the price of gold had risen in 21 of 24 trading sessions. In less than two months, its price had jumped more than 20% after hitting $1,000 per ounce in mid-September. As Galbraith details, expectations (and not fundamentals) are responsible for sending gold prices upward.

5. Barrick Gold recently removed its gold hedges. On September 8, 2009, Barrick Gold, the world's largest gold producer, reported its intent to remove the hedges that protect it against gold price declines. The company is raising $3 billion by issuing shares to pay off the hedges, which very well could indicate reckless bullishness as gold prices peak out.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

Charles de Gaulle
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby wren » Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:14 pm

Pixel8r wrote:There certainly does seem to be a lot of really bad reporting currently going which completely fails to talk about the fundamentals of gold, like the fact that the central banks have now turned buyers after years of selling making up the supply/demand shortage. The fact that gold is a monetary metal and with the amount of money being printed it has got to catch up.

It is making me think these articles are being placed in the media, anyone else have a view?


I like to read bearish articles about gold hoping to find good reasons for bearishness. No success so far. The quality of the articles is superficial, poor and sometimes even misinformed.
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