On the other hand...

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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Jan 28, 2010 1:46 pm

I guess in this article Soros isn't saying that gold is in a bubble, but there now exists the conditions for it to become ultimate one. I think that the reporter has overstated what he was actually saying, by calling for gold to tumble soon. Reporters do like to twist things to there own agenda. I beleive that Soros is actually saying that gold is developing into the ultimate asset bubble and nothing about that it will be over soon as the reporter has implied in the strapline.

Davos 2010: George Soros warns gold is now the 'ultimate bubble'
Gold is now "the ultimate bubble", billionaire investor George Soros has declared, sparking fears that prices for the precious metal may soon suffer a tumble.

Mr Soros, arguably the most famous hedge fund manager in history, warned that with interest rates low around the world, policymakers were risking generating new bubbles which could cause crashes in the future. In comments delivered on the fringe of the World Economic Forum, Mr Soros said: "When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold."

Gold prices last month reached a record level of just over $1,225 per ounce, having risen around 40pc last year. Investors are piling into the metal amid fears both of potential inflation and fading faith about the stability of previously-assumed safe assets such as government debt. However, the chairman of Barrick Gold, the world's biggest producer, Peter Munk, said he expected the metal's upward march to continue.

Mr Soros added that by proposing imminent "exit strategies" from the unprecedented support handed out to troubled banks and consumers, governments around the world could be in danger of triggering a double-dip in the global economy. In comments which will reinforce Labour's plan to fight the next election on promises not to start raising taxes or cutting spending too soon, he said that it was still too early to slash budget deficits.

He said: "I think that since the adjustment process to the recession is incomplete, there is a need for additional stimulus. Some countries, like the US and European countries, have plenty of room to increase their deficits. The political resistance to doing so increases the chances of a double dip in the economy in 2011 and after that..."
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby wren » Thu Jan 28, 2010 8:03 pm

Pixel8r wrote:I guess in this article Soros isn't saying that gold is in a bubble, but there now exists the conditions for it to become ultimate one. I think that the reporter has overstated what he was actually saying, by calling for gold to tumble soon. Reporters do like to twist things to there own agenda. I beleive that Soros is actually saying that gold is developing into the ultimate asset bubble and nothing about that it will be over soon as the reporter has implied in the strapline.


If gold ever gets into a bubble mania one feature might be the relative absence (in the mainstream) of this habitual anti-gold twisting and misreprentation, such as the subtitle of that article saying "soon".

Looking at some of the comments after that article, many commenters are wise to the situation with gold (and paper gold).

For those who didn't watch the video: Soros talks of the IMF funding green energy and agriculture etc. in less developed countries (if necessary selling gold to cover interest payments).
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Feb 06, 2010 4:26 pm

Usual anti gold talk from the Elliotwave crew;

Gold Prices In Free Fall: Safe Haven My Asparagus
2/4/2010 2:30:00 PM

On Thursday, February 4, gold prices took a front-row seat on the Nosedive Express: In just two hours of morning trading, the yellow metal plummeted more than $40/ounce -- its fastest price drop in more than 14 months.

As for why -- well, according to the mainstream experts, a slew of negative economic news took the wind out of gold's upwardly-mobile sails; namely:

"Gold Falls On Sovereign Debt Concerns" -- AND -- "Gold Follows Dow Futures Down" -- AND -- "Gold comes under pressure on disappointing weekly US jobs data."

Oh how the tables have turned. See, as recently as December 2009, gold prices were soaring to never-before-seen record highs. And, as far as the financial in-crowd was concerned, gold was the ultimate safe-haven, the shatterproof bomb shelter as all other assets were being blown to smithereens.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Feb 08, 2010 1:05 pm

Brian Nick: Time To Short Gold
Written by Lara Crigger - February 05, 2010 9:42 AM EST


It's a hard time to be a gold bug. At $1,049/oz, the yellow metal is currently trading way off its lofty highs of December 2009. And it could have even further to fall, says Brian Nick.
Nick is an investment strategist with Barclays Wealth, a leading global wealth management firm with more than $220 billion in assets under management worldwide. In its latest investment call, the firm took a decidedly bearish view on gold, advising investors to short the metal, which had become "significantly overvalued relative to fundamentals."
Recently HAI Associate Editor Lara Crigger chatted with Nick about the bearish outlook for gold, including how ETFs have changed the metal's demand picture, why we're not headed toward inflation and what's gold's real fair value.

Lara Crigger, associate editor, HardAssetsInvestor.com (Crigger): In a recent investment call, you advised investors to short gold. Why?

Brian Nick, investment strategist, Barclays Wealth (Nick): Now is a good time to short gold, but probably a better time to short gold would have been back in November, when it was $200/oz higher.
We think that the run-up in gold was overstated, and we don't think the reasons for it were sound. We think that a lot of the fear driving people to invest in gold has to do with the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, interest rates in the U.S. staying too low for too long, worries about inflation and the U.S. debt, and so on. With all that tied together, people flocked to gold as a store of value. But when you look at the fundamentals, this doesn't seem like an environment where gold should do well...
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Mar 11, 2010 10:59 pm

Another gold bubble caller Rick Bookstaber advisor to SEC;

The Gold Bubble

by RICK BOOKSTABER | Monday, March 8, 2010

This represents my personal opinion, not the views of the SEC or its staff.

I am not going to spend time here talking about how the price of gold is off-the-wall, that it is not just a bubble in the making, but a bubble waiting to burst. I don’t want to waste your time on that point.We all know it is a bubble.

George Soros has said “The ultimate asset bubble is gold”. Many of the top asset managers, such as Tudor and Paulson, are piling on; Paul Tudor Jones recently said gold “has its time and place, and now is that time.” The banks are echoing this view with their research. Goldman has a research piece that looks for gold to approach $1,400 in the next year. The more ebullient Charles Morris of HSBC has said, “I absolutely believe it’s heading into a bubble, but that’s why you buy it. ” He, along with a number of other professional and otherwise rational managers, looks for gold to move as high as $5,000 an ounce...
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby igglepiggle » Fri Mar 12, 2010 10:19 am

Pixel8r wrote:It is making me think these articles are being placed in the media, anyone else have a view?

There is very little independant journalism anymore. It's vastly cheaper (and safer in terms of liability) to just take press releases and re-edit them, rather than actually do any journalistic research.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Mar 30, 2010 3:52 pm

Bob Prechter telling everyone they should be in dollars.

[youtube]ykMgDAaDkPI[/youtube]
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby InSilverWeTrust » Tue Mar 30, 2010 5:21 pm

Pixel8r wrote:Bob Prechter telling everyone they should be in dollars.


Please, please get back into Dollars it's all i'm holding! :lol:

Are we approaching the end game?

Can they get everyone into the dollar one last time, or is the Silver/Gold fraud going to be unleashed just in time?

Gold/Silver v the paper Dollar
'They' still have control for now, but when the gloves come off and we have a fair fight...there will be only one winner!
Last edited by InSilverWeTrust on Tue Mar 30, 2010 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Tue Mar 30, 2010 7:36 pm

Who would you bet on George Sorros or Robert Pretcher... I wonder...

Pixel8r wrote:Bob Prechter telling everyone they should be in dollars.

[youtube]ykMgDAaDkPI[/youtube]
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: On the other hand...

Postby InSilverWeTrust » Tue Mar 30, 2010 9:11 pm

warpig wrote:Who would you bet on George Sorros or Robert Pretcher... I wonder...


Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Bob Chapman, CGNAO...

But what do they know :roll:

Bonds, stocks, currencies, Gold/Silver...The next stage should be very interesting.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Tue Mar 30, 2010 9:26 pm

Do you mean you wouldn't bet on either George Sorros or Robert Pretcher?
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Mar 30, 2010 9:27 pm

Just to remind people of Prechter's past results;

Prechter Predicts New Stock Market Lows and U.S. to Lose AAA Credit Rating

...Here's how Prechter's trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert's analysis:

Annualized Return:

Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent
Prechter's Trading Advice -15.4 percent

Total Return:

Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent
Prechter's Trading Advice - 98.3 percent

The underperformance of Prechter's newsletter is nothing short of astonishing and stunning! On an annualized basis, Prechter has underperformed the broad U.S. stock market Wilshire 5000 index by a whopping 25 percent per year! Here's what Hulbert's analysis shows would have happened to $100,000 invested according to Prechter's investing trading advice versus the Wilshire 5000 U.S. stock market index:

$100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):

Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100
Prechter's Trading Advice $1,700


...
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Tue Mar 30, 2010 9:29 pm

He mentioned his deflationary collapse will happen by May in his video, so we have another benchmark to look out for.

Pixel8r wrote:Just to remind people of Prechter's past results;

Prechter Predicts New Stock Market Lows and U.S. to Lose AAA Credit Rating

...Here's how Prechter's trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert's analysis:

Annualized Return:

Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent
Prechter's Trading Advice -15.4 percent

Total Return:

Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent
Prechter's Trading Advice - 98.3 percent

The underperformance of Prechter's newsletter is nothing short of astonishing and stunning! On an annualized basis, Prechter has underperformed the broad U.S. stock market Wilshire 5000 index by a whopping 25 percent per year! Here's what Hulbert's analysis shows would have happened to $100,000 invested according to Prechter's investing trading advice versus the Wilshire 5000 U.S. stock market index:

$100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):

Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100
Prechter's Trading Advice $1,700


...
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: On the other hand...

Postby InSilverWeTrust » Tue Mar 30, 2010 10:12 pm

warpig wrote:Do you mean you wouldn't bet on either George Sorros or Robert Pretcher?


Soros is in Gold so...

+ Celente. I think he's 80% in Gold the last time I heard.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Tue Mar 30, 2010 10:29 pm

Indeed. Clearly Sorros doesn't respect Pretcher's views either...

80%... what a lightweight! :D

InSilverWeTrust wrote:
warpig wrote:Do you mean you wouldn't bet on either George Sorros or Robert Pretcher?


Soros is in Gold so...

+ Celente. I think he's 80% in Gold the last time I heard.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Tue May 18, 2010 10:24 pm

Please form an orderly cue :lol:

Gold Investors Should 'Rush to the Exits': Dennis Gartman

Investors should get out of gold immediately as the metal reaches a technical top and is due for a pullback, says Dennis Gartman, hedge fund manager and author of The Gartman Letter.

In his daily note to clients, Gartman advises them to "rush to the exits" as gold prepares to retreat from a series of historic dollar highs.

While the move out may only last for the short term, he says the metal has "gone parabolic" and should be sold.

"(W)e are traders here, not investors, and traders listen to and watch the market, looking for signs of a changing environment," Gartman writes. "The environment has been changing; violence and volatility are everywhere. We want out. The sidelines look inviting."

Gartman himself, however, remains in a series of gold holdings using currency plays...
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Wed May 19, 2010 9:34 pm

Our favourite contrarian indicator adding his usual bearish call at options expiry.

Gold's Current Highs Not Sustainable

By Jon Nadler | May 19 2010 1:20PM

Crigger: So what is the "right" price for gold?

Nadler: Of course, now we've heard that such a price should be anywhere between $8,000 and even $15,000, but I still think that between $680 and $880, or in that range, gold would be much more in balance with its fundamentals. Eight hundred is a number that you saw come up in the GFMS surveys as a potential target, and they gave it up to two years (even with the potential overshoot of up to $1,320). Yeah, that could still happen, but it's all a cycle, a phase in the markets. It's currently driven by a circumstance (Europe), but not some "new dynamic" (a return to a gold-based world) that has suddenly become the new paradigm. You also have had Barclays Wealth Management coming out, saying they envision $800 gold by January 2012, and saying in an interview on TheStreet.com that they're "shorting the GLD and buying put options on gold for Jan 2012." Further, what am I to make of Societe Generale, which also said in April of this year that $800 gold is in the cards before the end of 2010? And so on; I am not alone in computing such figures.

...
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Thu May 20, 2010 10:30 am

It's amazing how many bearish articles start to surface at options expiry time.

The coming gold bust

By Scott Cendrowski | May 19, 2010

(Fortune) -- When gold prices turn skyward, like they did for the past two weeks before some recent flattening, some mix of greed, fear and uncertainty are likely ruling the market. What better time to remember what really drives prices over the long-term: market fundamentals. Through that lens, gold might not be such a hot investment.

The gold market works much like any other, with supply and demand eventually equalizing, and runaway prices returning to long-term averages. Since 1980, the price of gold has averaged about $440 an ounce in U.S. dollars. But much like U.S. home prices over this decade, it can take some time for prices to return to normal.

Barclays Wealth in London predicts gold will fall to a fair value of $800 an ounce by 2012, as investors eventually dump it for riskier trades; Societe Generale, the French bank, in April 2009 predicted $800 gold by the end of 2010, though it has reversed its stance since then. Analyst John Nadler of gold deal Kitco predicts gold will fall to $900 in 2011...
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Fri May 21, 2010 10:32 pm

We have had bearish Nadler now Prechter joins in.

Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold Is No Haven, Prechter Says

...Of course, the euro’s recent loss has been the dollar’s gain. Prechter predicted a strong move in the dollar on Tech Ticker over a year ago. “The dollar appeared to be on the verge of disintegrating last November,” he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. “I thought that was one of the best contrary opportunities I’ve ever seen.'

Prechter is less enthusiastic now that everyone is piling into the dollar. “The dollar is no longer a bargain,” he says. “I don’t think the bull market is over but I think the best of it for the time being is over.”

Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn’t such a good buy either, according to the veteran market watcher. “It’s losing upside momentum at the same time more people are getting more enamored with it,” he notes.

Contrary to popular belief, “gold tends to rise when the economy is expanding not when it’s in recession,” according to Prechter’s research. And, as we’ll discuss in more detail in another clip, Prechter thinks deflation and economic depression are a foregone conclusion.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Fri May 21, 2010 10:51 pm

TBH I'm getting sick of hearing his name... People must think he has a patent on deflation...
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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