On the other hand...

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Re: On the other hand...

Postby d2thdr » Sat May 22, 2010 9:59 am

warpig wrote:TBH I'm getting sick of hearing his name... People must think he has a patent on deflation...


Along with our old friend Roman holiday
In the world today there are only three assets, gold, oil and currencies. The paper currencies, so long admired and accepted are now in a war of self destruction. They will consume each other in an end battle of "I'm the last man standing but have lost all use as a unit of value".
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Sat May 22, 2010 11:44 am

d2thdr wrote:
warpig wrote:TBH I'm getting sick of hearing his name... People must think he has a patent on deflation...


Along with our old friend Roman holiday

No his is hyper-deflation, where cash starts to increase massively in PP. Can't you see it starting already?

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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Jun 08, 2010 8:31 pm

It's A Great Time For Gold Bulls, But Gold BUGS Are Still Totally Wrong

Joe Weisenthal | Jun. 8, 2010, 8:12 AM

Gold is at a new high today, so obviously the longtime gold bulls deserve credit for sticking by the metal. Congratulations on that.

But while gold bulls may be vindicated, gold bugs aren't.

There is a difference. The latter are folks who are convinced that gold is the One True Currency, and they repeat lines like: "no fiat currency has ever survived, so the US dollar is doomed."

This is absurd for all kinds of reasons, notably for the fact that no single government entity has ever survived very long, nor has any gold-backed currency.

But beyond that, the current crisis is not vindicating for gold bugs in anyway. As we've pointed out before, Greece is actually indicative of what happens when you have an inflexible gold-like currency. In a sense, Greece has a gold standard of sorts, and it didn't do anything to "keep the government honest," or prevent bad leaders from looting the treasury...
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:56 pm

Gold `Out of Whack' With Commodities, Due to Fall: Chart of Day

Image


Gold is “way out of whack with commodity prices” and headed for a fall, according to Brian Belski, Oppenheimer & Co.’s chief investment strategist.

The CHART OF THE DAY displays the ratio between gold’s price for immediate delivery, determined in the so-called spot market, and the Commodity Research Bureau’s spot commodity index on a monthly basis. The latter consists mainly of scrap metals, textiles, livestock and farm products.

This month’s reading of 2.93 is the second highest since 1981, as shown in the chart. The highest was 3.03 in February 2009, when spot gold ended a four-month advance by trading at more than $1,000 an ounce.

Gold dropped as much as 13 percent in the next two months before rebounding to records. The precious metal’s price peaked on June 8 at $1,252.11 an ounce, a 45 percent increase from its April 2009 low, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Momentum and misguided fear appear to be behind gold’s rise,” Belski wrote today in a report that featured a similar chart. “Therefore, we do not expect the gold trade to end well.”...
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Fri Jun 25, 2010 9:45 am

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20590.html

Welcome Back Deflation

By my model the US and Europe are already back in deflation.

In the US housing has collapsed, government bond yields have collapsed, the stock market is not acting well, bank credit continues to drop, and mark-to-market value of debt is headed south.

Those are symptoms of deflation but collectively they tell the story of failed reflation efforts of central bankers.

For more on the symptoms of inflation and deflation please see Humpty Dumpty On Inflation

Nearly all of the conditions one would expect to see in deflation are once again present. GDP is still positive (for now), but that is only because of an amazing amount of stimulus (government spending) that has now clearly worn off already.

The private sector is in shambles and housing is back in the gutter.
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Jun 25, 2010 2:08 pm

fwiw wrote:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20590.html

Welcome Back Deflation

By my model the US and Europe are already back in deflation.

About time, ready for the next round of bailouts and blatant printing.

Everything is deflating when priced in real money, but as we are in a fiat monetary system does that mean deflation or gold is inflating? :?
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Fri Jun 25, 2010 3:58 pm

Pixel8r wrote:
fwiw wrote:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20590.html

Welcome Back Deflation

By my model the US and Europe are already back in deflation.

About time, ready for the next round of bailouts and blatant printing.

Everything is deflating when priced in real money, but as we are in a fiat monetary system does that mean deflation or gold is inflating? :?


Gold is flying level; meanwhile the fiat brothers are hurling themselves towrds the earth. Not sure which one has the only parachute though?

Meanwhile, in other news: Don't worry it's all sorted and only took 19hrs:

From http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10411858.stm
The US Congress has all but finalised the biggest reform of US financial regulation since the Great Depression.

President Obama said the reforms would "hold Wall Street to account".

Legislators stayed up all of Thursday night for 19 hours of non-stop negotiations to reconcile separate versions of the bill that had been passed by the two houses of Congress.


Aren't you glad that we have people like the LEGISLATORS who can do such heroic feats such as stay up all night? I think that's the cue to buy more physical gold! :D
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:08 pm

Pixel8r wrote:
fwiw wrote:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20590.html

Welcome Back Deflation

By my model the US and Europe are already back in deflation.

About time, ready for the next round of bailouts and blatant printing.

Everything is deflating when priced in real money, but as we are in a fiat monetary system does that mean deflation or gold is inflating? :?


Pix - I still firmly believe there is no deflation (of the money supply in a fiat world), however as this is the other hand thread: (and I do read both sides)

http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/06/how ... more-23653

Image


Protecting Yourself

Smart investors stopped listening to Lyin’ Larry long ago and got off the modern financial Ponzi grid. It is really so simple: pay off debt, own insurance in the form of gold, have ample cash as long as confidence remains in fiat currency (don’t fool yourselves, this confidence remains embedded), become involved in productive endeavor whenever possible, and with an inner smile that comes from knowing you’ve done your best to get your house in order, go forth and speculate if you so choose.

To summarize the NFTRH stance, I would say that the structure of the macro situation is that of a deflationary continuum against which free license is given to policy makers to continue their regime of inflation on demand. Every time there is stress in the system (i.e., the U.S. credit contraction in 2008, or the European one in 2010), inflation – in the form of debt-based money supply ramp up – is brought forth. This cannot continue forever, but it takes a greater thinker than myself to be able to call it a wrap right here and right now. Eliminate debt, own value and pursue productive endeavor.
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Jun 25, 2010 5:22 pm

fwiw wrote:Aren't you glad that we have people like the LEGISLATORS who can do such heroic feats such as stay up all night? I think that's the cue to buy more physical gold! :D

You couldn't make this stuff up, they are promising to "impose strict limits on banks' ability to take risky speculative bets on markets" and that news makes the value of these banks shares go up. :crazy:
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Jun 25, 2010 9:45 pm

Credit Suisse always good for a laugh. :lol:

Gold to US$1,300 by 2014: Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse has increased its gold price forecasts by as much as 17% in the next five years, warning of recurring “waves” of financial unrest in the coming years that will drive volatility in the precious metal through repeated stimulus spending.


For 2010, the bank forecasts gold at US$1,145 an ounce, compared with US$1,025 previously, a 12% change. For 2011, new estimates of US$1,105 are 11% higher compared with US$1,000 previously, while the 2012 price revision is up the most to US$1,180, a 17% change.

By 2013, prices are expected to reach US$1,220, a 12% change, and in 2014, the estimate is for US$1,300, compared with US$1,120 previously forecast.

Certainly not quite as bullish as some analysts, such as chief economist David Rosenberg with Gluskin Sheff, with his prediction for US$3,000 gold in the next few years. Or, for that matter, Peter Schiff with Euro Pacific Capital who expects gold to hit US$5,000 to US$10,000 in the next five to 10 years.

David Davis, research analyst with Credit Suisse, said the short-term gold price is being influenced by the current macroeconomic and foreign exchange markets.

“We believe that this influence will dissolve in the short term but is likely to reappear in waves, and as such we can expect some volatility in the gold price,” he said in the report. “Our global equity strategy team believes their is an 80% chance of a renewal of quantitative easing either owing to the sovereign credit crisis or a double dip occurring in which case the current macro environment will likely reappear.”

The long-term price for gold remains at US$850, although price trends are moving upwards as mine supply runs out, he said.

Credit Suisse has also revised its methodology for price targets and valuations of gold companies, and as a result has upgraded Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle and Eldorado Gold all to Outperform with price targets of $54, $76 and $22 respectively.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby fwiw » Sat Jun 26, 2010 10:57 am

Pixel8r wrote:Credit Suisse always good for a laugh. :lol:

Gold to US$1,300 by 2014: Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse has increased its gold price forecasts by as much as 17% in the next five years, warning of recurring “waves” of financial unrest in the coming years that will drive volatility in the precious metal through repeated stimulus spending.


For 2010, the bank forecasts gold at US$1,145 an ounce, compared with US$1,025 previously, a 12% change. For 2011, new estimates of US$1,105 are 11% higher compared with US$1,000 previously, while the 2012 price revision is up the most to US$1,180, a 17% change.

By 2013, prices are expected to reach US$1,220, a 12% change, and in 2014, the estimate is for US$1,300, compared with US$1,120 previously forecast.

Certainly not quite as bullish as some analysts, such as chief economist David Rosenberg with Gluskin Sheff, with his prediction for US$3,000 gold in the next few years. Or, for that matter, Peter Schiff with Euro Pacific Capital who expects gold to hit US$5,000 to US$10,000 in the next five to 10 years.

David Davis, research analyst with Credit Suisse, said the short-term gold price is being influenced by the current macroeconomic and foreign exchange markets.

“We believe that this influence will dissolve in the short term but is likely to reappear in waves, and as such we can expect some volatility in the gold price,” he said in the report. “Our global equity strategy team believes their is an 80% chance of a renewal of quantitative easing either owing to the sovereign credit crisis or a double dip occurring in which case the current macro environment will likely reappear.”

The long-term price for gold remains at US$850, although price trends are moving upwards as mine supply runs out, he said.

Credit Suisse has also revised its methodology for price targets and valuations of gold companies, and as a result has upgraded Barrick Gold, Agnico Eagle and Eldorado Gold all to Outperform with price targets of $54, $76 and $22 respectively.



Do they mean 8.14pm on Monday this week???? :lol:
There is no SPOON deflation.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Jul 20, 2010 9:44 pm

Clive Maund turns bearish, when are these commentators going to learn about the cartel?

Don't get fleeced - get rich: CRASH UPDATE...

...Now here’s where you are asked to exert your grey matter a little. Look at these 2 charts, one then the other and ask yourself where you think the XAU index will be if the S&P500 drops to the bottom - or off the bottom of its chart THIS YEAR. Get my point? - it’s not likely to be up is it? The XAU index HAS NOT CONFIRMED GOLD’S BREAKOUT TO NEW HIGHS, NOR HAS SILVER - AND BOTH ARE CLOSE TO FAILING BENEATH MASSIVE RESISTANCE. Watch out for a heavy down day to confirm that the 2008 style crash has started.

Remember all those poor fools who froze like bewildered sheep in 2008 and were then summarily fleeced - that doesn’t have to include you this time round, does it?...
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Tue Jul 20, 2010 10:31 pm

I have to admit my opinion of Clive Maund is slipping... He's usually late with his calls and he is often right as he is wrong...

Pixel8r wrote:Clive Maund turns bearish, when are these commentators going to learn about the cartel?

Don't get fleeced - get rich: CRASH UPDATE...

...Now here’s where you are asked to exert your grey matter a little. Look at these 2 charts, one then the other and ask yourself where you think the XAU index will be if the S&P500 drops to the bottom - or off the bottom of its chart THIS YEAR. Get my point? - it’s not likely to be up is it? The XAU index HAS NOT CONFIRMED GOLD’S BREAKOUT TO NEW HIGHS, NOR HAS SILVER - AND BOTH ARE CLOSE TO FAILING BENEATH MASSIVE RESISTANCE. Watch out for a heavy down day to confirm that the 2008 style crash has started.

Remember all those poor fools who froze like bewildered sheep in 2008 and were then summarily fleeced - that doesn’t have to include you this time round, does it?...
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

Charles de Gaulle
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:46 pm

Buy Gold? People Bought Tulips Once

By: Jeannie Clarke

Gold is near a four-week high as concerns for the health of the global economy push investors into safe-havens assets. But one investor says the precious metal is overpriced.

“Ask someone what gold is worth and the answer will now be: what someone will pay,” Peter Toogood, head of investment at Old Broad Street Research, said.. “That is the reality of gold today.”

More than 50 percent of gold purchases come from exchange traded funds-related investment demand, Toogood said.

“It has nothing to do with fabrication or usage of gold. It is storing it in a vault,” he said.

Another argument against buying the precious metal is that it has no scarcity value, Toogood added.. Unlike a rare piece of art, gold is in plentiful supply.

“I think the point being in a capitalist system, (a Picasso) is given a value for a reason, (it) has scarcity value. Gold has none. You can get it out of the ground,” he said.

There are also concerns about liquidity, he said.

“There are pawn shops you can go to," he said. "Send it in the post apparently and they will give you some cash for it. Oh my gosh, how much more bubbly do we want to get?"

Toogood also gave some guidelines on how to give value to a product, and how to define worth.

“Something that gives you a yield for a starting point. For me, that is one way you can define value,” he said.. “Secondly gold has no linearity. Linearity and yield. Gold doesn’t have either of those.”

Even the aesthetic value of gold is no reason to buy, according to Toogood.

“People liked tulips once as well. Good luck to them,” he said.
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
(As John Pierpont Morgan once stated under oath before the USCongress and the Pujo Commission in 1912)
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Tue Aug 17, 2010 1:27 am

What a f*ckwit.

Pixel8r wrote:Buy Gold? People Bought Tulips Once

By: Jeannie Clarke

Gold is near a four-week high as concerns for the health of the global economy push investors into safe-havens assets. But one investor says the precious metal is overpriced.

“Ask someone what gold is worth and the answer will now be: what someone will pay,” Peter Toogood, head of investment at Old Broad Street Research, said.. “That is the reality of gold today.”

SNIP
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Aug 19, 2010 11:04 pm

Ok here's another.

Buying Gold Is a Mistake -- Stocks Offer Better Returns, James Altucher Says

Through the tumult of the last two years, few assets have held up better than gold. That, however, is no reason to buy the shiny metal, says James Altucher.

"It's had its run because we've had enormous fear in the market," says the Formula Capital founder in this clip. "Whenever there's such huge investment uncertainty, like we've had for the past decade, gold is going to go up."

It sure has.

Gold has increased five-fold in the last decade and currently trades for more than $1,200 an ounce. But, compared with stocks, gold is a laggard, he writes in a recent Wall Street Journal column:

"Gold reached its peak in 1980 when it reached $800 an ounce, which is $2,000 in today's dollars. So in real terms, gold has lost about 40% of its value since 1980. In the meantime, the stock market has gone up about 500% in real terms...
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Thu Aug 19, 2010 11:35 pm

I just noticed this statement... Does anyone know what he's talking about, they've used the Euro for the last 8 years...

"In a [non]sense, Greece has a gold standard of sorts,"

But beyond that, the current crisis is not vindicating for gold bugs in anyway. As we've pointed out before, Greece is actually indicative of what happens when you have an inflexible gold-like currency. In a sense, Greece has a gold standard of sorts, and it didn't do anything to "keep the government honest," or prevent bad leaders from looting the treasury...


Pixel8r wrote:It's A Great Time For Gold Bulls, But Gold BUGS Are Still Totally Wrong

Joe Weisenthal | Jun. 8, 2010, 8:12 AM

Gold is at a new high today, so obviously the longtime gold bulls deserve credit for sticking by the metal. Congratulations on that.

But while gold bulls may be vindicated, gold bugs aren't.

There is a difference. The latter are folks who are convinced that gold is the One True Currency, and they repeat lines like: "no fiat currency has ever survived, so the US dollar is doomed."

This is absurd for all kinds of reasons, notably for the fact that no single government entity has ever survived very long, nor has any gold-backed currency.

But beyond that, the current crisis is not vindicating for gold bugs in anyway. As we've pointed out before, Greece is actually indicative of what happens when you have an inflexible gold-like currency. In a sense, Greece has a gold standard of sorts, and it didn't do anything to "keep the government honest," or prevent bad leaders from looting the treasury...
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

Charles de Gaulle
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Aug 20, 2010 6:43 am

warpig wrote:I just noticed this statement... Does anyone know what he's talking about, they've used the Euro for the last 8 years...

"In a [non]sense, Greece has a gold standard of sorts,"

But beyond that, the current crisis is not vindicating for gold bugs in anyway. As we've pointed out before, Greece is actually indicative of what happens when you have an inflexible gold-like currency. In a sense, Greece has a gold standard of sorts, and it didn't do anything to "keep the government honest," or prevent bad leaders from looting the treasury...


This from another article he wrote which explains his thinking;

What's interesting is when they talk about Greece. Schiff says the US is the next Greece. Galbraith says the difference is that Greece is a member of the euro and doesn't control its currency (it can't print).

The key line though is when Schiff says: "The fact that Greece can't print money is a good thing."

This is the aha line that reveals Schiff's true ideology. It's better to have an inflexible currency where you're forced to default, rather than have the ability to print and inflate. Essentially Greece is under a modern version of the gold standard -- it doesn't have a currency, it just has a supply of euros that it doesn't control, much like any country would be if its currency were gold.
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby warpig » Fri Aug 20, 2010 8:55 pm

Thanks for that. This isn't a good analogy IMO, it just confuses his point. There's too many counter points for a quick post!

Pixel8r wrote:
warpig wrote:I just noticed this statement... Does anyone know what he's talking about, they've used the Euro for the last 8 years...

"In a [non]sense, Greece has a gold standard of sorts,"

But beyond that, the current crisis is not vindicating for gold bugs in anyway. As we've pointed out before, Greece is actually indicative of what happens when you have an inflexible gold-like currency. In a sense, Greece has a gold standard of sorts, and it didn't do anything to "keep the government honest," or prevent bad leaders from looting the treasury...


This from another article he wrote which explains his thinking;

What's interesting is when they talk about Greece. Schiff says the US is the next Greece. Galbraith says the difference is that Greece is a member of the euro and doesn't control its currency (it can't print).

The key line though is when Schiff says: "The fact that Greece can't print money is a good thing."

This is the aha line that reveals Schiff's true ideology. It's better to have an inflexible currency where you're forced to default, rather than have the ability to print and inflate. Essentially Greece is under a modern version of the gold standard -- it doesn't have a currency, it just has a supply of euros that it doesn't control, much like any country would be if its currency were gold.
"There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold. Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence"

"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

Charles de Gaulle
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Re: On the other hand...

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Jan 13, 2011 10:46 pm

Why You Should Sell Your Gold Now

Posted by Alexander Green, Investment U on January 12, 2011 9:56 am

Speculators should sell their gold.

I know most readers will disagree. But that’s okay. I’ve been down this road before…

In 2000, we called investors’ love affair with Internet and technology shares “perhaps the greatest investment mania of all time.” Readers wrote in that we “just didn’t get it.” That we didn’t understand the New Era. And indeed, it made no sense to me.
Six years ago, when I warned of the dangers of the housing bubble, readers chimed in again, telling me that real estate always goes up. (They said that even though it had fallen for 14 consecutive years in Japan.)

So my opening line will only tee off the majority again.

But gold — now priced at more than $1,365 an ounce – is trading in La-La Land. And if you’re piling into it now, you’re taking a very poor risk…

Are These Gold Investments in Your Portfolio?
Don’t get me wrong… high-quality gold shares should be part of any well-diversified portfolio.

Unlike the metal itself, blue-chip gold stocks have delivered an average annual compounded return of about 12% over the past 50 years. And they’re not correlated with the broad market, which gives your portfolio higher returns with less volatility.

That’s why we own the Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (VGPMX) in The Oxford Club’s Gone Fishin’ Portfolio and AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) in our Oxford Trading Portfolio.

But gold has more than tripled in the past five years and quintupled over the past 10 years. Gold bugs say it will go much higher, but there are good reasons to be skeptical…
"Money is Gold, and nothing else"
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