Tracking the performance of PM shares

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Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:12 pm

Another strange day in PM mining shares today with the shares having a down day while the bullion has let another up day. It seems to me that the shares are being heavily sold short and aren't currently showing their usual characteristic of providing leverage to metals.

Lets use this thread to gather information relating to the PM shares performance to the metals.

Here's some cool charts from Trader Dan Norcini;

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/20 ... ratio.html
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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:56 pm

Loads of interesting inverse head & shoulders in the gold market currently, I identified a possible one forming in gold in March. This looks good for performance in the shares and metals through the traditional slow period of the summer. I am getting more convinced that we aren't going to see the big sell off as many are expecting moving into QE2 finishing in June.

This article has some good charts which show them in gold;

Gold's Inverse H&S: Rocket Time!

Morris Hubbartt | Weekly Market Update Excerpt |posted Apr 15, 2011

...

Gold Juniors GDXJ Chart

GDXJ Chart Analysis:

GDXJ is currently on a technical buy signal. Based on my SFS Gold Stock Ratio, the 12 month target for GDXJ is $75. I have just completed a deep look into the juniors sector, and I am very positive in the short and long term. Future gold supplies depend almost totally on junior companies!

Technically, this week I want you to focus on the inverse head and shoulders chart I am highlighting. This is the most bullish chart configuration, and it is very subtle in this case, almost totally unnoticed! Gold juniors are on the verge of a rocket move higher.

Ironically, many junior gold stock investors are close to throwing in the towel, just as all you dreamed about is about to come true! Some investors are even shorting the gold stocks. This is a horrible mistake. Those going to the dollar now are doing so just as it begins a huge down-leg that could soon become a worldwide panic.

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...
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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Apr 19, 2011 3:46 pm

Looks like we are going to end up with another down day on the PM shares but I bet the metals close higher again. :?
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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:37 pm

Here's an interesting chart, Silver miners ($SIL) priced in silver. They are looking extremely cheap to me.

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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Apr 21, 2011 11:24 pm

I'll Take A Crack At Explaining The Performance Of The Mining Shares

There's been reams of discussion recently about the performance of the mining shares relative to the price of gold/silver. I believe a lot of the disappointment in the performance of the shares is because the metals have been hitting new highs almost every day now. But there are a lot of "levers," or variables, that drive mining share valuation - not just metal in the ground multiplied out by the price of gold/silver. And make no mistake about it, the HUI and XAU have been hitting new all-time highs during this period, so anyone not making money in the mining shares should reassess their strategies and anyone not happy with their bounty will probably always be a malcontent.

But rather than let our views get overwhelmed by conpiracy theories and childish whining, let's cut to the chase and just look at some numbers and market theory. I'm going to keep this simple for illustrative purposes. To begin with, the price of a stock at any given time largely reflects the current fundamental value, or instrinsic value, of the company plus some expection of the company's future prospects. So if a mining stock is priced at $50, that value reflects everything that is currently known about the company and its industry fundamentals PLUS it contains some value that reflects what the market thinks will happen in the future. So for a solid mining stock at $50, that price contains the public knowledge that gold is at $1500 PLUS some "discounted value" for the expectation/probability that the price of gold will be higher in the future. So just because gold goes from $1400 to $1500, if the market thinks that $1500 is all we'll see, the price of the stock won't move. This is "rational expectations" theory in a nutshell and is good for explaining a large part of stock market valuations, everything else being equal...
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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Apr 21, 2011 11:27 pm

Are the Miners Underperforming the Metals?

In short, the answer is yes. That seems to be the case to some degree.

The reasons for this are roughly as follow.

From past analysis, the mining sector seems to be roughly correlated 50 percent to the underlying metal, and 50 percent to the SP 500. Obviously this varies over time because of related factors, lags and correlations, but it is not a bad rule of thumb.

Right now the SP 500 is underperforming the metals. I am showing the SP 500 compared to gold, because silver is in such a powerful short squeeze that almost everything is underperforming it...
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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby InSilverWeTrust » Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:26 am

VisionVictory Gold & Silver Mining Industry Q&A with Gordon Blankstein CEO Andover Ventures
April 21st

Watch on youtube.com
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Performance of PM shares during 1970's bull run

Postby Pixel8r » Tue May 10, 2011 10:17 pm

I came across this data today while reading again the latest Thunder Road Report. It shows the performance of some of the mining shares within the last gold bull run in the 70's.

Imagine the possibilities if you hit a 614,186% gain, just $1000 worth of shares would have turned into $6,141,860,000. :wtf:

ShareShare price lowShare price highPercentage gain
Lion Mines7 cents$430614,186%
Bankeno$1.25$43034,300%
Wharf Resources40 cents$560139,900%
Steep Rock93 cents$44047,211%
Mineral Resources60 cents$41569,066%
Azure Resources5 cents$109217,900%

Source: Edward Gofsky
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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Jun 20, 2011 11:25 pm

Time to back up the truck into PM shares?

Jim Sinclair and Dan Norcini seem to think so, here's a interview on KWN from this weekend;

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ ... rcini.html

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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:14 pm

Here's an interesting article by Sean Broderick which shows that gold stocks haven't been this cheap since the crash in 2008.

3 Gold Charts You Need to See

We may be coming to the time when you should be adding to your portfolio of mining stocks. Why? Well, a picture is worth a thousand words, so let me give you three thousand words of pictures, and some easy ways to play the next move higher in gold miners.

Chart #1: Gold Miners Are Dirt-Cheap.

Here’s a chart showing the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI), a basket of leading gold miners. You can see lines for the price of the index and its price-to-earnings value.

Image


Looking at the chart, you can see that gold miners haven’t been this cheap — relative to earnings — since the 2008 economic crisis.

While the HUI’s share price can go lower, the potential downside is probably limited because value buyers will start scooping up shares.

Meanwhile, the P/E upside for both the HUI and the individual miners in it is huge.

Why are these stocks so relatively cheap? Because the price of the metal they mine has gone up and their stock prices haven’t. And that brings me to my second chart...


To read the rest of this article please follow this link - http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/3-go ... -see-12278
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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Sep 03, 2011 7:07 pm

I think that the HUI is showing the way for the bullion shares, we have just taken out the longterm resistance on Friday and closed at an all-time high. With Monday being Labour day in the US we should see money returning to the market, as the old saying, which seems to have worked this year, says “sell in May, go away, and don't come back til Labour Day”.

I am expecting the miners to do very well over the next few months, what do others think?

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Re: Performance of PM shares during 1970's bull run

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Sep 15, 2011 1:05 pm

Pixel8r wrote:I came across this data today while reading again the latest Thunder Road Report. It shows the performance of some of the mining shares within the last gold bull run in the 70's.

Imagine the possibilities if you hit a 614,186% gain, just $1000 worth of shares would have turned into $6,141,860,000. :wtf:

ShareShare price lowShare price highPercentage gain
Lion Mines7 cents$430614,186%
Bankeno$1.25$43034,300%
Wharf Resources40 cents$560139,900%
Steep Rock93 cents$44047,211%
Mineral Resources60 cents$41569,066%
Azure Resources5 cents$109217,900%

Source: Edward Gofsky

The figures quoted from this source have been proved to be overstated by a factor of 100. Read this thread to see why;

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=632&p=15460#p15460
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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:59 pm

Stewart Thomson's latest says the GDX is flashing multiple buy signals right across the board. The article can be read here, but here's the interesting GDX chart from it - http://www.gracelandupdates.com/images/stories/nov11/2011nov22gdx2.png

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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Jan 24, 2012 2:16 pm

The latest article by Stewart Thomson has this to say in it's closing stages;

  1. Click this GDXJ super bull wedge chart now. Note the red bear wedge that occurred late last year. Think about the difference in the size of the two wedges. You saw how far price moved to the downside from the bear wedge pattern.
  2. The price of GDXJ is extended, but only in the very short term. The gold junior stocks bulls have a bull super wedge price pattern in play, with enormous upside implications!

Image

The rest of the report can be read here - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thoms ... 12412.html
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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:33 pm

Juniors leading the pack this year as I have been expecting. Pinetree capital seems to be recovering nicely lately. I am still thinking this year is going to be particularly good for mining shares, which will also mean the juniors do better than the majors. :thumbup:

Here's a cool chart produced by Morris Hubbart, which I have taken from this article - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/h ... 20312.html

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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Apr 28, 2012 7:20 pm

Here's a snippet from Morris Hubbartt's latest which you can read on this link - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/h ... 42712.html

GDXJ Breakout Alert Chart

  • This picture speaks a thousand bullish words. A bullish wedge pattern with a big-volume breakout is in place.
  • I expect junior gold stocks to outperform all other sectors of the precious metals market for the rest of this year.


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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Thu May 03, 2012 11:50 am

Watch on youtube.com
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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Wed May 09, 2012 12:10 pm

Watch on youtube.com
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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:32 pm

This graph from Morris Hubbartt is very pretty. :thumbup:

All Gold Stock Hands On HUI Deck

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Re: Tracking the performance of PM shares

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Jul 17, 2012 9:07 pm

Stewart Thompson's latest has some cool charts, looks like the juniors are ready on the starting blocks just in time for the olympics. :dance:

Dr Bernanke's Golden Conundrum

Stewart Thomson | Jul 17, 2012

The gold market feels like the Indy 500 track on race day. All the cars of the precious metals sector are revving their engines on the start line.

The junior gold stock sector seems to be revving its engine the loudest of all. To get a visual picture of why I hear that sound, please click here now.

I’ve compared GDXJ to CDNX, and you can see that a head & shoulders bottom pattern has formed, suggesting that junior gold stocks are poised to significantly outperform the general junior resource sector...
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