Predictions for 2014

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Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Dec 24, 2013 12:49 pm » Safari 7.0 Safari 7.0  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

I thought it was about time that we started a thread to talk about how we expect things to go over the next year. We all got the direction of gold and silver wrong in last years predictions, but no one could foresee the desperate actions the western CB's would take with their 'extend and pretend' mesures.

I kick it off with these four things that I think we will see this coming year.

  • People start to realise that maybe the gold bull run isn't over and actually it has much further to go.
  • Rates start to rise, followed by an increase in QE.
  • The manufactured recovery starts to fade as the reality of the debt levels starts to sink in.
  • Political blowback for the way the crisis has been handled starts, the bankers that have been bailed out should have been allowed to go bust and sent to jail for their crimes.
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby warpig » Tue Dec 24, 2013 10:10 pm » Google Chrome 31.0.165 Google Chrome 31.0.165  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

All the points you raise, apart from the last will happen in January by my reckoning. I would just qualify next year as the reverse of this year apart from the debt will get larger and civil liberties will be lost.
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Tue Dec 24, 2013 11:32 pm » Safari 7.0.1 Safari 7.0.1  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

warpig » Tue Dec 24, 2013 10:10 pm wrote:All the points you raise, apart from the last will happen in January by my reckoning. I would just qualify next year as the reverse of this year apart from the debt will get larger and civil liberties will be lost.

So far there hasn't been much disagreement with how much of the west has dealt with this crisis, I think that will change this year. There will be more talk about the way Iceland has dealt with things and how US & UK have taken the opposite approach. As the years go by and the crisis lingers on and actually intensifies the anger will start to surface, questions will finally start to be asked.

We all like to think that the governments control our thoughts by manipulating the media, I am sure they do to a degree, but I think there comes a time when things start to become blatantly obvious to all.
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby wee Jinky » Wed Dec 25, 2013 3:09 pm » Safari 4.0 Safari 4.0  Android Android  Screen Resolution: 1280 x 800 1280 x 800

2014 will be the year that fiat dies, so I think we should aquaint ourselves with the effect death has on the human consciousness.
I give you the 5 stages of grief often referred to as the kubler-ross model
stage 1- denial
Many of our economic gurus are firmly entrenched in stage 1 already
stage 2- anger
as peoples worth is wiped out this stage will be highly unpleasant see Iceland, Cyprus, Greece etc
stage 3- bargaining
this is where people will agree to almost anything to achieve stability
stage 4- depression
reality finally hits home that paper is paper and govts are criminal
stage 5- acceptance
money is gold and nothing else
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Wed Dec 25, 2013 4:33 pm » Safari Mobile 7.0 Safari Mobile 7.0  iPad iPad  Screen Resolution: 768 x 1024 768 x 1024

wee Jinky » Wed Dec 25, 2013 3:09 pm wrote:money is gold and nothing else

Let's not forget that silver has actually been money more than gold, the word for money is actually silver in loads of countries. :thumbup:
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby wee Jinky » Wed Dec 25, 2013 5:29 pm » Safari 4.0 Safari 4.0  Android Android  Screen Resolution: 1280 x 800 1280 x 800

Absolutely
but in my defence the turkey needed carved and I was rushing to finish the post :D
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Thu Dec 26, 2013 1:59 pm » Google Chrome 31.0.165 Google Chrome 31.0.165  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Command Economy Stun Lee and Win continues to be surprised by people ignoring the desires of TPTB in what is now all but a centrally planned command economy. Price controls placed on electricity and food in the 2014 Autumn Statement.

Manipulation Continues as in 2013. Doesn't reach public awareness.

Dollar The next exciting round of the debt ceiling crisis sees the dollar weaken slightly at the start of the year and then strengthen in the second half.

Gold and Silver Rapid depletion of the CME and GLD mean that TPTB cannot keep the gold price down at 1200 for the whole year. They are forced to let the price rise to 1450-1500 or so to stop the outflows . Silver stays between 18 and 24 dollars, with one or two moves up to 26. Supply and demand fundamentals are all but irrelevant now

Euro No big crises this year, but markets may remember that all of the PIIGS are bankrupt in the second half of the year. Euro stays between 1.30 and 1.40 dollars

Pound Booming house prices and increased credit creation are more important to the market than the utterly wrecked economy and colossal and unpayable debt. Pound stays near its current overvalued level (1.64 to dollar at time of writing) and even strengthens a little.

Japan The yen is now hugely undervalued and I see it strengthening from its current 105 to the dollar to the mid 90s. As I type, one pound is worth 172 yen. WTF?

Interest rates No increases anywhere but they are reported to be due in the next few months. For the whole year.

Middle East No war between Iran and Israel. US TPTB makes another effort to mislead the public to allow them to invade Syria.

UK house prices TPTB love increasing house prices since it enables increased credit creation and hence "economic growth". In central London and prime South East prices increase by 10% or more. 5% or so increase in other relatively prosperous parts. Fairly flat elsewhere. Stun Lee and Win is utterly f&%$ing sick of TPTB trying to impoverish him and thinks about switching to the dark side and getting a BTL. If you can't beat them, join them.
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Thu Dec 26, 2013 3:16 pm » Safari 7.0.1 Safari 7.0.1  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

I should have said yields will rise above where I said rates will, I don't think rates will because they will increase QE before rates start to rise.

So in short you are expecting TPTB to continue playing the games they have been and get away with it Stun Lee?
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Fri Dec 27, 2013 8:03 am » Google Chrome 31.0.165 Google Chrome 31.0.165  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Pixel8r » Thu Dec 26, 2013 4:16 pm wrote:I should have said yields will rise above where I said rates will, I don't think rates will because they will increase QE before rates start to rise.

So in short you are expecting TPTB to continue playing the games they have been and get away with it Stun Lee?


Yep, why on earth would they stop now? As ever with the caveat that they dont' run out of GLD and CME stocks completely (which they will do at current rates of depletion in the next nine months or so), the manipulation doesn't become public knowledge and that the Chinese don't blow the game up themselves.
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Dec 27, 2013 8:59 am » Safari Mobile 7.0 Safari Mobile 7.0  iPad iPad  Screen Resolution: 768 x 1024 768 x 1024

Stun Lee and Win » Fri Dec 27, 2013 8:03 am wrote:Yep, why on earth would they stop now? As ever with the caveat that they dont' run out of GLD and CME stocks completely (which they will do at current rates of depletion in the next nine months or so), the manipulation doesn't become public knowledge and that the Chinese don't blow the game up themselves.

There are numerous things that can happen to make things escalate, JT gave a good analogy in his new book of an avalanche waiting to happen. He explained this crash is building like an avalanche just waiting for the final snowflake to fall, no one can tell when it will happen but it could at anytime.

I would like to add that in the uk it is like this government has also turned on the snow blowers to build the avalanche a bit quicker. Central planned economic fixes, what could possibly go wrong? Hold tight stun lee. :thumbup:
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Dec 27, 2013 12:57 pm » Safari 7.0.1 Safari 7.0.1  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Watch on youtube.com
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Stun Lee and Win » Sat Dec 28, 2013 1:54 pm » Google Chrome 31.0.165 Google Chrome 31.0.165  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Pixel8r » Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:59 am wrote: Hold tight stun lee. :thumbup:


Oh yeah, we are right, and the West is going bankrupt. No one should give up now, at what must be at or very near the lowest possible price.
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Hooloovoo » Mon Dec 30, 2013 2:32 pm » Google Chrome 31.0.165 Google Chrome 31.0.165  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1080 1920 x 1080

Gold will find its final low in January - have a good 300 dollar run during spring, and pull back some during the summer doldrums - before the firework really starts in Autumn with the new C-wave.
Miners are ridiciously cheap and will probably do better than Gold.

I was a forced seller of half my Silver during the previous 2 years - only consolidation is that it was sold at higher prices than we have now.
My personal Gold for the new year is to buy back as much as possible before prices really take off - and then hopefully add the rest during the summer pullback.
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Does Commute Abit » Sun Jan 05, 2014 6:41 pm » Firefox 26.0 Firefox 26.0  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1366 x 768 1366 x 768

I'm not to far different from Pix, perhaps disagreeing on timescales:

People start to realise that maybe the gold bull run isn't over and actually it has much further to go.
But it may get down to $1000 first, perhaps low by late in year after a doldrums decline, then the next bull run starts

Rates start to rise, followed by an increase in QE.
Rates go nowhere in the UK until after the general election, save for perhaps a 0.5% test increase. Things will get brutal when rates do go up though, but thats being put off as long as possible by which time the current government officials will be long out if the public eye

The manufactured recovery starts to fade as the reality of the debt levels starts to sink in.
agreed. No wage inflation being the way the public catch on

Political blowback for the way the crisis has been handled starts, the bankers that have been bailed out should have been allowed to go bust and sent to jail for their crimes.
[i] nah, never happens. Osbourne in the Lords, Cameron on some international envoy role earning $ as a Goldmans Sachs advisor on the side. Labour leaning too far left to bring more problems to the UK this time concerning welfare, unions, infrastructure etc. Actually, pretty grim

Extra one - housing market - up (in the SE and London, and therefore UK) until the bubble bursts. Then another 20% correction. But it may go up 20% before this happens.
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:03 am » Safari 6.1.1 Safari 6.1.1  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

Thought I better put a bit more meat on my expectations for the metals this year. I think that we have seen the bottom in this correction and after a slowish start in January we will move into sustained recovery in the metal prices. I don't see us getting near the $1050 price that has been mentioned and expect us to have a strong summer.

I think the fed will taper this month, but the surprise will be that yields will stay low. This will be achieved by the fed doing interest rates swaps with banks basically increasing the already massive derivative market.

The leverage will keep on increasing while China keeps getting the physical metal out of the west, when that starts to slow down the screws will start to tighten. We should see good gains in the metals this year, with silver outperforming gold as usual in a recovery. We will also see miners outperforming the bullion, being the very best place to be IMO.
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:25 pm » Safari 7.0.1 Safari 7.0.1  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Pixel8r » Tue Dec 24, 2013 12:49 pm wrote:
  • Political blowback for the way the crisis has been handled starts, the bankers that have been bailed out should have been allowed to go bust and sent to jail for their crimes.

Interesting that Dr Paul Craig Roberts is now talking about the fed having a choice of wether to save the banks or the dollar, I think they will chose the dollar and the banks will be allowed to start finally failing. I do hope that it is true that we will finally see the bankers being turned on, time to bring forth the guillotine. :twisted:

The biggest financial danger is the collapse of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. This would bring about a far greater crisis than the collapse of 3 or 4 big banks. So that’s what the Fed has got to figure out: Can it save the banks without bringing the dollar down?

If the world’s reserve currency collapses, the payments mechanism everywhere is disrupted, and the reserves of central banks evaporate. The panic that would result, the domestic inflation in the United States that would result, this type of crisis dwarfs having JP Morgan, Citibank, and two or three others fail.

Because when the banks fail, they just reorganize. The deposits in the banks are very small compared to the bailout of the banks. And so the Fed would simply have to ask, ‘Can we stand the collapse of the dollar? This crisis is far bigger than failing to save the banks.’

Now since the Fed is really run more by the banks than by the public policy interests, we can’t assume the Fed would make the right decision. But that is the choice it would face. And I think it may face that choice before the year is out. So that is the big financial danger: What does the Fed do? Save the dollar, or save the banks. It can’t do both.


above from - http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ ... anger.html

Time for an old skool UK hip-hop tune from the late 80's, we must use the Silver Bullet :D

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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby warpig » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:34 pm » Google Chrome 31.0.165 Google Chrome 31.0.165  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

Sounds like a false dichotomy to me - I don't think they can save either, at least in terms of the dollar being the worlds reserve currency. The problem with the US, is the rest of the world is paying for their military and domestic commitments just as it did for the British. They've bled the system dry and quite frankly there's no way out.

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"Betting against gold is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money, bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history."

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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Sat Feb 01, 2014 9:35 am » Safari 7.0.1 Safari 7.0.1  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

All the stock market bulls are going on about how this isn't going to be a major correction, I think it could well be unless the fed reverses course rapidly (which I think is unlikely). The amount of leverage in the stock market is double the amount present in 2007, everyone has been betting big on the one direction stock market (caused by the feds printing for the last 4 years). With all the leverage in the market the stock market only needs to fall a small amount for it to cause large losses.

You think they would have learnt their lesson from 2008 really wouldn't you. :roll:

Here's one for you;

Technician Charles Nenner: This Is Not a Major Correction



Here's another;

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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby Pixel8r » Wed Feb 05, 2014 9:33 am » Safari 6.1.1 Safari 6.1.1  Mac OS X Mac OS X  Screen Resolution: 1920 x 1200 1920 x 1200

The next few days kind of look critical to me for setting the action for this year. If we get the DJI & S&P closing down over the next few days there is going to be some major pain in the markets with the amount of leverage in them currently.

This could quite easily turn into 2008 X2 over the next week. :wtf:
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Re: Predictions for 2014

Postby warpig » Wed Feb 05, 2014 10:13 am » Google Chrome 31.0.165 Google Chrome 31.0.165  Windows Seven 64 bits Windows Seven 64 bits  Screen Resolution: 1680 x 1050 1680 x 1050

The market will correct because of the tapering and the woes in the emerging markets, but when the FED stop tapering and actually increase QE around April-May, the markets will make new highs later in the year. The fat lady will sing in 18 months IMO.
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